Upside case
Bull case
$394953+2316340.6%
TLK would need investors to value it at roughly 17x earnings — about 17x more generous than today's 0x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLK) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
2
analysts
0 bullish · 0 bearish · 2 covering TLK
Strong Buy
0
Buy
0
Hold
2
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
—
— vs today
Scenario Range
$228772 – $394953
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
2
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
0.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $16.9B
TLK price targets
Three scenarios for where TLK stock could go
Current
~$17
Confidence
42 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $17
Bear
$228772
Base
$291225
Bull
$394953
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$291225+1707965.8%
At 13x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$228772+1341671.4%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push TLK down roughly 1341671% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk
TLK · NYSECommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesDecember year-end
Telkom Indonesia is Indonesia's largest integrated telecommunications and digital services provider, operating mobile networks, fixed-line services, and digital platforms across the archipelago. It generates revenue primarily from mobile services (~50% of total), fixed broadband, enterprise ICT solutions, and wholesale carrier services. The company's key advantage is its extensive nationwide infrastructure—including the largest fiber-optic backbone and mobile network coverage—which creates significant barriers to entry and supports its dominant market position.
Market Cap
$16.9B
Revenue TTM
$147.37T
Net Income TTM
$21.72T
Net Margin
14.7%
TLK Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
0%Mixed
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-6.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.38/$0.37
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.4B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.31/$0.34
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.30/$0.34
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.32/$0.32
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.38/$0.37 | +3.4% | $2.2B/$2.4B | -7.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.31/$0.34 | -8.1% | $2.2B/$2.2B | -0.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.30/$0.34 | -10.7% | $2.2B/$2.2B | -1.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.32/$0.32 | +0.0% | $2.2B/$2.2B | -0.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$149.31T
+1.3% YoY
FY2
$151.30T
+1.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$22620.08
+3.2% YoY
FY2
$23344.71
+3.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$40.12T
FCF Margin: 27.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
TLK beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
TLK Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $201.05T
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Operating Segments.
99.7%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Abroad
100.0%
+10.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Operating Segments. is the largest disclosed segment at 99.7% of FY 2024 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
Abroad is the largest reported region at 100.0%, up 10.5% YoY.
TLK Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $248878 — implies +1495558.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
1495558.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TLK
12.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
51% discount
vs Communication Services Trailing P/E
TLK
12.5x
vs
Communication Services
15.5x
20% discount
vs TLK 5Y Avg P/E
Today
12.5x
vs
5Y Average
0.0x
+1482505% premium
Forward PE
0.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
-100%
Communication Services
13.1x
-100%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
12.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
-51%
Communication Services
15.5x
-20%
5Y Avg
0.0x
+1482505%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Communication Services
0.66x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
4.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
-71%
Communication Services
8.7x
-49%
5Y Avg
0.5x
+796%
Price/FCF
9.2x
S&P 500
21.3x
-57%
Communication Services
11.6x
-20%
5Y Avg
0.0x
+1330520%
Price/Sales
2.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-37%
Communication Services
1.0x
+88%
5Y Avg
0.0x
+1212250%
Dividend Yield
5.99%
S&P 500
1.88%
+219%
Communication Services
3.38%
+77%
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | TLK | S&P 500 | Communication Services | 5Y Avg TLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 0.0x | 19.1x-100% | 13.1x-100% | — |
| Trailing PE | 12.5x | 25.2x-51% | 15.5x-20% | 0.0x+1482505% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.66x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.5x | 15.3x-71% | 8.7x-49% | 0.5x+796% |
| Price/FCF | 9.2x | 21.3x-57% | 11.6x-20% | 0.0x+1330520% |
| Price/Sales | 2.0x | 3.1x-37% | 1.0x+88% | 0.0x+1212250% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.99% | 1.88% | 3.38% | — |
TLK trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTLK Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
TLK earns 27.0% operating margin on regulated earnings, 6.0% dividend yield. Utilities carry higher leverage than industrials as a structural feature of the business model.
Regulated Operations
Revenue, regulated margins, and earnings
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$147.37T
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-1.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
27.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
14.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$21925.61
Operating Margin
Operating income over revenue — primary regulated earnings signal
27.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
16.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$33.91T
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$42.93T
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.1× FCF
Regulated utilities typically operate at 3–5× net debt/FCF — this is structural, not a risk flag.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
13.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.0%
Dividend
6.0%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$17850.40
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
74.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
991M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. Utilities operate with structural leverage (3–5× net debt/FCF) due to regulated, predictable cash flows.
Open full ratios pageTLK Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Political Influence
As a state-owned enterprise, PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLK) is susceptible to political influence, which can significantly affect its operations and strategic decisions. This risk is heightened in an environment where government policies may change unexpectedly.
High Risk
Execution Challenges
TLK is currently undergoing a strategic pivot that includes spinning off assets and expanding into data centers. The complexity of these changes poses a high risk of execution challenges that could adversely impact the company's performance.
Medium
Analyst Sentiment
The consensus among Wall Street analysts is a 'Reduce' rating for TLK shares, with one sell rating and one hold rating from two analysts. This negative sentiment could lead to decreased investor confidence and affect stock performance.
Medium
Dividend Payout Ratio
TLK's projected dividend payout ratio is high at 77.78% for 2024, which limits reinvestment opportunities for growth. Additionally, a dividend yield of 7.56% is noted as not well covered by earnings, raising concerns about sustainability.
Medium
Financial Health Indicators
TLK has a quick ratio of 0.76, indicating potential challenges in meeting short-term obligations without selling inventory. This raises concerns about the company's liquidity and ability to manage short-term liabilities effectively.
Lower
Macroeconomic Headwinds
Broader economic conditions can impact TLK's performance, particularly in a volatile market. Factors such as inflation and currency fluctuations could adversely affect revenue and profitability.
Lower
Valuation and Growth
While some analyses suggest TLK may be undervalued, its PEG Ratio of 2.28 indicates it might be overvalued relative to its growth rate. Earnings are forecast to grow by approximately 7.04% to 14.07% annually, which may not justify the current valuation for some investors.
Lower
Short Interest
Short interest in TLK has recently increased by 1.24%, indicating a potential decrease in investor sentiment. This could lead to increased volatility in the stock price as more investors bet against the company's performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TLK Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Attractive Valuation and Solid Yield
TLK is considered to be trading at an attractive valuation, offering a solid dividend yield of approximately 6%. This makes it appealing for income-focused investors.
Growth Potential in Indonesia
As a vital service provider in Indonesia, TLK is well-positioned to benefit from the country's strong long-term economic potential and digital transformation.
Strategic Pivot and Expansion
The company is undergoing a strategic pivot that includes spinning off assets, optimizing its portfolio, and aggressively expanding into data centers, which are seen as key growth areas for the future.
Financial Health
TLK maintains a robust EBITDA margin of around 50% and demonstrates disciplined capital expenditure (CAPEX), which supports healthy free cash flow and dividend payments. Its financial position is considered solid, with limited debt compared to some international telecom giants.
Diversified Revenue Streams
TLK operates across multiple segments, including mobile, consumer, and enterprise services, which diversifies its revenue and reduces overall risk.
Strong Market Capitalization
The company has a substantial market capitalization of approximately $18.58 billion, indicating a strong position within the telecommunications industry.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TLK Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$17.05
52W Range Position
19%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$15.56
+9.6% from the low
52-Week High
$23.52
-27.5% from the high
1 Month
-8.38%
3 Month
-16.79%
YTD
-19.1%
1 Year
+5.4%
3Y CAGR
-15.1%
5Y CAGR
-5.4%
10Y CAGR
-4.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TLK vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
0.0x
vs 0.2x median
-100% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.3%
vs +6.7% median
-80% below peer median
Net Margin
14.7%
vs 10.4% median
+42% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TLK TLK Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk | $16.9B | 0.0x | +1.3% | 14.7% | Hold | — |
PHI PHI PLDT Inc. | $4.4B | 0.1x | +3.6% | 13.7% | Hold | — |
VIV VIV Telefônica Brasil S.A. | $25.5B | 2.9x | +6.7% | 10.4% | Hold | +3.6% |
TEO TEO Telecom Argentina S.A. | $5.3B | 0.0x | +12.4% | -3.3% | Sell | +4.1% |
TKC TKC Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. | $5.7B | 0.2x | +14.2% | 7.4% | Buy | — |
BCE BCE BCE Inc. | $22.6B | 9.3x | +1.9% | 25.8% | Hold | +7.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TLK Dividend and Capital Return
TLK returns 6.0% total yield, led by a 5.99% dividend, raised 5 consecutive years.
Dividend WatchFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
6.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
5.99%
Payout Ratio
74.9%
How TLK Splits Its Return
Div 5.99%
Dividend 5.99%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$17850.40
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
7.4%
5Y Div CAGR
10.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
1 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
991M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $1.29 | +15.8% | — | — |
| 2024 | $1.11 | -1.6% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 2023 | $1.13 | +8.7% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 2022 | $1.04 | +17.7% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 2021 | $0.88 | +10.6% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
FAQ
6 questionsTLK Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLK) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLK) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 2 analysts covering the stock, 0 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 2 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The bear case scenario is $228772 and the bull case is $394953.
02Is Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLK) stock overvalued in 2026?
TLK trades at 0.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
03What are the main risks for Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLK) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TLK in 2026 are: (1) Political Influence — As a state-owned enterprise, PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLK) is susceptible to political influence, which can significantly affect its operations and strategic decisions. (2) Execution Challenges — TLK is currently undergoing a strategic pivot that includes spinning off assets and expanding into data centers. (3) Analyst Sentiment — The consensus among Wall Street analysts is a 'Reduce' rating for TLK shares, with one sell rating and one hold rating from two analysts. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
04What is Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TLK will report consensus revenue of $149.31T (+1.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $22620.08 (+3.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $151.30T in revenue.
05When does Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLK) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for TLK is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
06How much free cash flow does Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk generate?
Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLK) generated $40.12T in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 27.2%. TLK returns capital to shareholders through dividends (6.0% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).