Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing TLN more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
12
analysts
12 bullish · 0 bearish · 12 covering TLN
Strong Buy
0
Buy
12
Hold
0
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$476
+16.1% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
12
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
18.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $18.7B
TLN price targets
Three scenarios for where TLN stock could go
Current
~$410
Confidence
23 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Talen Energy Corporation
TLN · NASDAQUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersDecember year-end
Talen Energy is an independent power producer that generates and sells electricity from nuclear, fossil, solar, and coal power plants across wholesale markets. It makes money primarily through electricity sales (roughly 70-80%) and capacity payments for grid reliability, with additional revenue from ancillary grid services. The company's moat lies in its diversified generation portfolio—including valuable nuclear assets—and its strategic positioning in key power markets with long-term contracts.
Market Cap
$18.7B
Revenue TTM
$3.0B
Net Income TTM
-$21M
Net Margin
-0.7%
TLN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+233.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 0 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.82/$1.03
Revenue
$390M/$492M
Q3 2025
EPS
$-1.19/$-1.04
Revenue
$454M/$392M
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.38/$3.18
Revenue
$770M/$745M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-7.60/$2.62
Revenue
$749M/$664M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.82/$1.03 | -20.4% | $390M/$492M | -20.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $-1.19/$-1.04 | -14.4% | $454M/$392M | +15.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.38/$3.18 | -25.2% | $770M/$745M | +3.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $-7.60/$2.62 | -390.1% | $749M/$664M | +12.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.4B
+13.1% YoY
FY2
$3.7B
+9.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.52
+1573.1% YoY
FY2
$11.72
+79.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$2.8B
FCF Margin: -93.4%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
TLN beat EPS estimates in 0 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
TLN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Electricity Sales And Ancillary Services
75.3%
+69.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Electricity Sales And Ancillary Services is the largest disclosed segment at 75.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 69.6% YoY.
TLN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $324 — implies -12.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
12.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TLN
-85.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
439% discount
vs Utilities Trailing P/E
TLN
-85.6x
vs
Utilities
19.7x
534% discount
vs TLN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-85.6x
vs
5Y Average
8.8x
1074% discount
Forward PE
18.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
-2%
Utilities
17.2x
+8%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-85.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
-439%
Utilities
19.7x
-534%
5Y Avg
8.8x
-1074%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Utilities
1.73x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
119.2x
S&P 500
15.3x
+682%
Utilities
11.5x
+933%
5Y Avg
16.1x
+640%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Utilities
15.4x
—
5Y Avg
8.1x
—
Price/Sales
7.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+137%
Utilities
2.2x
+240%
5Y Avg
4.6x
+61%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Utilities
3.07%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | TLN | S&P 500 | Utilities | 5Y Avg TLN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 18.6x | 19.1x | 17.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | -85.6x | 25.2x-439% | 19.7x-534% | 8.8x-1074% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.73x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 119.2x | 15.3x+682% | 11.5x+933% | 16.1x+640% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 15.4x | 8.1x |
| Price/Sales | 7.4x | 3.1x+137% | 2.2x+240% | 4.6x+61% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 3.07% | — |
TLN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 4 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTLN Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
TLN earns 8.1% operating margin on regulated earnings. Utilities carry higher leverage than industrials as a structural feature of the business model.
Regulated Operations
Revenue, regulated margins, and earnings
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+44.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
8.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-0.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.44
Operating Margin
Operating income over revenue — primary regulated earnings signal
8.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-0.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-0.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$752M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$6.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
Regulated utilities typically operate at 3–5× net debt/FCF — this is structural, not a risk flag.
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-1.7%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-0.9%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.5%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$103M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
46M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. Utilities operate with structural leverage (3–5× net debt/FCF) due to regulated, predictable cash flows.
Open full ratios pageTLN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
High debt load
Talen Energy has a significant debt-to-equity ratio of 6.23, indicating high leverage that could impact financial stability. This extreme level of debt increases vulnerability to interest rate fluctuations and market volatility.
High Risk
Accounting-related charge
There is a potential for a large accounting-related charge that could adversely affect Talen Energy's financial statements. Such a charge could further weaken investor sentiment and impact stock valuation.
High Risk
Acquisition risks
The pending acquisition poses multiple risks, including financing, regulatory timing, and integration challenges. Investors are concerned about how these factors will affect Talen Energy's operational efficiency and financial performance.
Medium
Earnings volatility
Talen Energy has experienced extreme earnings volatility, which raises concerns about its financial predictability. This volatility is compounded by negative Return on Equity and Assets, indicating poor capital efficiency.
Medium
Revenue performance
The company's revenue has shown significant year-over-year increases followed by sharp sequential declines, creating uncertainty about future revenue stability. This inconsistency can affect investor confidence and stock performance.
Lower
Shift from clean energy
Talen Energy's shift away from pure clean energy production towards natural gas resources may deter investors focused on decarbonization. This strategic pivot could impact the company's attractiveness in a market increasingly prioritizing sustainability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TLN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Demand from Data Centers and AI
TLN is positioned to benefit from the increasing need for stable, carbon-free power required by hyperscale data centers and AI technologies. The company has secured a long-term contract with Amazon Web Services to supply nuclear power to their data center campus, providing significant revenue visibility.
Financial Performance and Outlook
Management has projected aggressive Adjusted EBITDA for 2026, nearly doubling the 2025 estimates. Analysts have a consensus rating of 'Strong Buy' for TLN, with expectations of substantial growth in EBITDA from 2024 to 2027, driven by higher capacity prices and improved energy margins.
Acquisitions and Capacity Expansion
TLN is acquiring natural gas assets to expand its generation capacity, which is expected to significantly boost its free cash flow per share. This strategic expansion diversifies its generation mix and meets the growing peaking demand.
Strategic Transformation
Following a restructuring, TLN has achieved a cleaner balance sheet with reduced debt and a renewed focus on nuclear and gas assets. This transformation positions the company as a strategically essential platform, anchored by its nuclear power plant and adjacent data campus.
Share Repurchase Program
An ongoing share repurchase program is in place, which is expected to support the stock price and enhance shareholder value.
Technical Indicators Favorable
Several technical indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and moving averages, suggest a 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy' signal for TLN, indicating positive market sentiment.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TLN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$409.99
52W Range Position
82%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$220.59
+85.9% from the low
52-Week High
$451.28
-9.1% from the high
1 Month
+26.51%
3 Month
+18.84%
YTD
+3.3%
1 Year
+74.7%
3Y CAGR
+106.6%
5Y CAGR
+54.5%
10Y CAGR
+24.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TLN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
18.6x
vs 17.4x median
+7% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+13.1%
vs +9.4% median
+39% above peer median
Net Margin
-0.7%
vs 7.4% median
-109% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TLN TLN Talen Energy Corporation | $18.7B | 18.6x | +13.1% | -0.7% | Buy | +16.1% |
VST VST Vistra Corp. | $53.6B | 18.4x | +9.7% | 5.6% | Buy | +43.8% |
NRG NRG NRG Energy, Inc. | $32.3B | 16.4x | +9.1% | 0.7% | Buy | +28.8% |
CEG CEG Constellation Energy Corporation | $100.8B | 27.8x | +10.0% | 9.1% | Buy | +25.6% |
GEN GEN Gen Digital Inc. | $12.1B | 7.7x | +6.8% | 12.8% | Buy | +63.6% |
DYN DYN Dyne Therapeutics, Inc. | $3.1B | — | — | — | Buy | +99.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TLN Dividend and Capital Return
TLN returns 0.5% annually — null% through dividends and 0.5% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.5%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$103M
Estimated Shares Retired
251.2K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
46M
At 0.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsTLN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 12 analysts covering the stock, 12 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 0 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $476, implying +16.1% from the current price of $410.
02What is the TLN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TLN is $476 based on 12 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $510 (+24.4% from today), and the low-end target is $408 (-0.5%).
03Is Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) stock overvalued in 2026?
TLN trades at 18.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TLN in 2026 are: (1) High debt load — Talen Energy has a significant debt-to-equity ratio of 6. (2) Accounting-related charge — There is a potential for a large accounting-related charge that could adversely affect Talen Energy's financial statements. (3) Acquisition risks — The pending acquisition poses multiple risks, including financing, regulatory timing, and integration challenges. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Talen Energy Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TLN will report consensus revenue of $3.4B (+13.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.52 (+1573.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.7B in revenue.
06When does Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for TLN is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Talen Energy Corporation generate?
Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) had a free cash outflow of $2.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 93.4%. TLN returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($103M TTM).