Upside case
Bull case
$306+94.1%
NRG would need investors to value it at roughly 33x earnings — about 16x more generous than today's 17x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
26
analysts
17 bullish · 2 bearish · 26 covering NRG
Strong Buy
1
Buy
16
Hold
7
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$194
+23.2% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $306
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
26
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
17.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $30.0B
NRG price targets
Three scenarios for where NRG stock could go
Current
~$157
Confidence
45 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $157
Base
$227
Bull
$306
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$227+43.9%
At 25x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
NRG Energy, Inc.
NRG · NYSEUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersDecember year-end
NRG Energy is an integrated power company that generates and sells electricity to approximately 6 million residential, commercial, industrial, and wholesale customers across the United States. It makes money primarily through electricity generation and retail energy sales—using a diverse fuel mix including natural gas, coal, solar, nuclear, and battery storage—along with energy trading and related services. The company's competitive advantage lies in its integrated model combining generation assets with retail customer relationships across multiple brands, creating a vertically positioned player in competitive power markets.
Market Cap
$30.0B
Revenue TTM
$30.7B
Net Income TTM
$864M
Net Margin
2.8%
NRG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$2.62/$1.75
Revenue
$8.6B/$7.9B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.68/$1.74
Revenue
$6.7B/$6.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.75/$2.14
Revenue
$7.6B/$7.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.03/$0.97
Revenue
$7.8B/$6.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $2.62/$1.75 | +49.7% | $8.6B/$7.9B | +8.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.68/$1.74 | -3.4% | $6.7B/$6.5B | +4.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.75/$2.14 | +28.5% | $7.6B/$7.5B | +2.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.03/$0.97 | +6.0% | $7.8B/$6.7B | +16.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$33.5B
+9.1% YoY
FY2
$35.9B
+7.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.39
+31.7% YoY
FY2
$5.89
+9.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$196M
FCF Margin: 0.6%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.23
Expected Revenue
$9.6B
NRG beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
NRG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $30.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
East Segment
46.4%
+21.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
East Segment
49.9%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
East Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 46.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 21.8% YoY.
East Segment is the largest reported region at 49.9%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
NRG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $143 — implies -6.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
6.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NRG
38.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+53% premium
vs Utilities Trailing P/E
NRG
38.5x
vs
Utilities
20.1x
+92% premium
vs NRG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
38.5x
vs
5Y Average
17.0x
+126% premium
Forward PE
17.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
-10%
Utilities
17.5x
-2%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
38.5x
S&P 500
25.1x
+53%
Utilities
20.1x
+92%
5Y Avg
17.0x
+126%
PEG Ratio
2.64x
S&P 500
1.72x
+54%
Utilities
1.69x
+56%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
-20%
Utilities
11.4x
+7%
5Y Avg
8.8x
+38%
Price/FCF
39.1x
S&P 500
21.1x
+86%
Utilities
15.1x
+160%
5Y Avg
27.2x
+44%
Price/Sales
1.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-69%
Utilities
2.2x
-55%
5Y Avg
0.6x
+73%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Utilities
3.06%
—
5Y Avg
3.20%
—
| Metric | NRG | S&P 500 | Utilities | 5Y Avg NRG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 17.2x | 19.1x-10% | 17.5x | — |
| Trailing PE | 38.5x | 25.1x+53% | 20.1x+92% | 17.0x+126% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.64x | 1.72x+54% | 1.69x+56% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.2x | 15.2x-20% | 11.4x | 8.8x+38% |
| Price/FCF | 39.1x | 21.1x+86% | 15.1x+160% | 27.2x+44% |
| Price/Sales | 1.0x | 3.1x-69% | 2.2x-55% | 0.6x+73% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 3.06% | 3.20% |
NRG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNRG Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
NRG earns 6.0% operating margin on regulated earnings. Utilities carry higher leverage than industrials as a structural feature of the business model.
Regulated Operations
Revenue, regulated margins, and earnings
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$30.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
6.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
2.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.09
Operating Margin
Operating income over revenue — primary regulated earnings signal
6.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
332.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$260M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$16.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
83.5× FCF
Regulated utilities typically operate at 3–5× net debt/FCF — this is structural, not a risk flag.
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
51.4%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (9.1%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
211M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. Utilities operate with structural leverage (3–5× net debt/FCF) due to regulated, predictable cash flows.
Open full ratios pageNRG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
High Debt Load
NRG Energy carries approximately $11.11 billion in total debt as of June 2025, resulting in a high debt‑to‑equity ratio that signals aggressive leverage. The elevated debt burden could constrain the company’s ability to raise capital and limit flexibility in responding to economic shifts.
High Risk
Liquidity Concerns
Analysts note critically low liquidity ratios, raising doubts about NRG’s short‑term cash flow and operational solvency. A weak liquidity position could impede day‑to‑day operations and increase refinancing risk.
High Risk
Value Destruction
NRG’s return on invested capital (ROIC) is negative and well below its weighted average cost of capital (WACC), indicating that the company is eroding shareholder value through its operations.
High Risk
Earnings Manipulation Risk
The firm has a low Piotroski F‑score and a high Beneish M‑Score, suggesting potential earnings manipulation. Strategic reclassification of financial contracts has also raised transparency concerns.
Medium
Price Volatility
NRG is exposed to significant price swings in retail and wholesale power, natural gas, coal, and oil markets. Rapid increases in wholesale prices that outpace retail rate hikes can erode margins and impact financial performance.
Medium
Regulatory Changes
Operating in a regulated industry, NRG faces risks from evolving emissions standards, capacity market rules, and environmental regulations. Such changes can increase operational costs and compliance burdens, affecting profitability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NRG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Strategic Acquisitions & Synergies
NRG’s recent acquisitions, including Vivint Smart Home and the LS Power asset portfolio, are projected to boost cash flow by up to $1.0 billion through cost savings and revenue synergies. The LS Power deal adds substantial gas‑fired generation capacity, expanding NRG’s operational footprint and resilience.
Rising Power Demand & Pricing Power
Electricity demand is accelerating due to electrification, a rebound in industrial production, and rapid data‑center growth. In a market where supply struggles to keep pace, NRG enjoys significant pricing power.
Cross‑Selling Opportunities
With 6 million retail energy customers and 2 million home‑services customers, NRG can leverage its acquisitions to cross‑sell products, driving incremental revenue.
Projected Earnings Growth
Analysts forecast EPS to rise to $10–$11 by 2026, reflecting strong earnings growth that could justify a higher P/E and support a substantial share‑price increase.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NRG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$157.43
52W Range Position
57%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$114.20
+37.9% from the low
52-Week High
$189.96
-17.1% from the high
1 Month
+5.09%
3 Month
+8.99%
YTD
-5.3%
1 Year
+35.4%
3Y CAGR
+71.4%
5Y CAGR
+35.1%
10Y CAGR
+26.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NRG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
17.2x
vs 17.4x median
-2% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.1%
vs +6.7% median
+36% above peer median
Net Margin
2.8%
vs 8.8% median
-68% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NRG NRG NRG Energy, Inc. | $30.0B | 17.2x | +9.1% | 2.8% | Buy | +23.2% |
VST VST Vistra Corp. | $54.3B | 18.7x | +9.7% | 5.6% | Buy | +41.9% |
CEG CEG Constellation Energy Corporation | $100.1B | 27.6x | +10.0% | 9.1% | Buy | +26.5% |
EXC EXC Exelon Corporation | $46.6B | 16.2x | +3.7% | 11.6% | Hold | +6.5% |
AES AES The AES Corporation | $10.2B | 6.2x | +0.9% | 8.4% | Hold | +27.0% |
DYN DYN Dyne Therapeutics, Inc. | $2.9B | — | — | — | Buy | +115.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NRG Dividend and Capital Return
NRG does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.83
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
7Y
3Y Div CAGR
7.9%
5Y Div CAGR
8.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
211M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.95 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.76 | +8.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024 | $1.63 | +7.9% | 4.9% | 7.0% |
| 2023 | $1.51 | +7.9% | 9.9% | 13.2% |
| 2022 | $1.40 | +7.7% | 8.1% | 12.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsNRG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 26 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $194, implying +23.2% from the current price of $157.
02What is the NRG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NRG is $194 based on 26 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $211 (+34.0% from today), and the low-end target is $159 (+1.0%). The base case model target is $227.
03Is NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) stock overvalued in 2026?
NRG trades at 17.2x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NRG in 2026 are: (1) High Debt Load — NRG Energy carries approximately $11. (2) Liquidity Concerns — Analysts note critically low liquidity ratios, raising doubts about NRG’s short‑term cash flow and operational solvency. (3) Value Destruction — NRG’s return on invested capital (ROIC) is negative and well below its weighted average cost of capital (WACC), indicating that the company is eroding shareholder value through its operations. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is NRG Energy, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NRG will report consensus revenue of $33.5B (+9.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.39 (+31.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $35.9B in revenue.
06When does NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) report its next earnings?
NRG Energy, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $2.23 and revenue of $9.6B. Over recent quarters, NRG has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does NRG Energy, Inc. generate?
NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) generated $196M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 0.6%. NRG returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).