Upside case
Bull case
$912+468.4%
VST would need investors to value it at roughly 106x earnings — about 88x more generous than today's 19x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Vistra Corp. (VST) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
21
analysts
19 bullish · 0 bearish · 21 covering VST
Strong Buy
0
Buy
19
Hold
2
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$228
+41.9% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $912
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
21
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
18.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $54.3B
VST price targets
Three scenarios for where VST stock could go
Current
~$160
Confidence
38 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $160
Base
$429
Bull
$912
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$429+167.5%
At 50x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Vistra Corp.
VST · NYSEUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersDecember year-end
Vistra Corp. is an integrated electricity company that both generates power and sells it directly to retail customers across 20 U.S. states. It makes money through retail electricity sales to residential and commercial customers — about 60% of revenue — and wholesale power generation from its diverse portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, and renewable assets. The company's key advantage is its integrated model that combines generation assets with retail operations, providing natural hedging against power price volatility.
Market Cap
$54.3B
Revenue TTM
$16.7B
Net Income TTM
$944M
Net Margin
5.6%
VST Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-286.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 0 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$-0.93/$0.54
Revenue
$5.2B/$4.5B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.81/$0.88
Revenue
$4.3B/$4.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.75/$2.08
Revenue
$5.0B/$6.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.54/$2.31
Revenue
$4.6B/$5.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $-0.93/$0.54 | -273.5% | $5.2B/$4.5B | +13.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.81/$0.88 | -7.4% | $4.3B/$4.7B | -10.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.75/$2.08 | -15.9% | $5.0B/$6.1B | -18.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.54/$2.31 | -76.5% | $4.6B/$5.8B | -20.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$18.3B
+9.7% YoY
FY2
$17.9B
-2.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.16
+85.7% YoY
FY2
$5.91
+14.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$640M
FCF Margin: 3.8%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.29
Expected Revenue
$5.7B
VST beat EPS estimates in 0 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
VST Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $17.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Retail Segment
51.0%
+11.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
East Segment
95.0%
+9.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Retail Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 51.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 11.2% YoY.
East Segment is the largest reported region at 95.0%, up 9.1% YoY.
VST Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $68 — implies -56.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
56.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
VST
72.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+189% premium
vs Utilities Trailing P/E
VST
72.6x
vs
Utilities
20.1x
+262% premium
vs VST 5Y Avg P/E
Today
72.6x
vs
5Y Average
34.5x
+110% premium
Forward PE
18.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
-2%
Utilities
17.5x
+7%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
72.6x
S&P 500
25.1x
+189%
Utilities
20.1x
+262%
5Y Avg
34.5x
+110%
PEG Ratio
6.48x
S&P 500
1.72x
+278%
Utilities
1.69x
+283%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
17.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
+13%
Utilities
11.4x
+52%
5Y Avg
11.0x
+57%
Price/FCF
420.9x
S&P 500
21.1x
+1896%
Utilities
15.1x
+2693%
5Y Avg
3.8x
+10900%
Price/Sales
3.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+2%
Utilities
2.2x
+49%
5Y Avg
1.6x
+99%
Dividend Yield
0.56%
S&P 500
1.87%
-70%
Utilities
3.06%
-82%
5Y Avg
1.81%
-69%
| Metric | VST | S&P 500 | Utilities | 5Y Avg VST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 18.7x | 19.1x | 17.5x | — |
| Trailing PE | 72.6x | 25.1x+189% | 20.1x+262% | 34.5x+110% |
| PEG Ratio | 6.48x | 1.72x+278% | 1.69x+283% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.2x | 15.2x+13% | 11.4x+52% | 11.0x+57% |
| Price/FCF | 420.9x | 21.1x+1896% | 15.1x+2693% | 3.8x+10900% |
| Price/Sales | 3.2x | 3.1x | 2.2x+49% | 1.6x+99% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.56% | 1.87% | 3.06% | 1.81% |
VST trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolVST Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
VST earns 5.8% operating margin on regulated earnings, 0.6% dividend yield. Utilities carry higher leverage than industrials as a structural feature of the business model.
Regulated Operations
Revenue, regulated margins, and earnings
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$16.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-13.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
5.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
5.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.78
Operating Margin
Operating income over revenue — primary regulated earnings signal
5.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$816M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$19.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
30.6× FCF
Regulated utilities typically operate at 3–5× net debt/FCF — this is structural, not a risk flag.
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
18.9%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (4.3%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.5%
Dividend
0.6%
Buyback
1.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.0B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.90
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
32.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
339M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. Utilities operate with structural leverage (3–5× net debt/FCF) due to regulated, predictable cash flows.
Open full ratios pageVST Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Commodity Price Volatility
Vistra's adjusted EBITDA was hit by an estimated $1.6B due to extreme wholesale power and natural gas price swings. Fluctuations in fuel and power costs directly erode margins, and the company’s exposure to volatile markets could repeat this hit in future periods.
High Risk
Debt Burden
As of December 31, 2025, Vistra carries ~$20.7B in total debt, with net debt projected to exceed $20B after the Cogentrix acquisition. This leverage (~3x EBITDA) limits capital raising flexibility and heightens sensitivity to interest rate hikes.
High Risk
Margin & Collateral Risk
Failure to meet margin or collateral obligations could trigger significant losses and force the company to liquidate assets or raise capital under unfavorable terms. Spot market volatility could exacerbate these requirements, tightening liquidity.
Medium
Operational Reliability
Nuclear facilities and other generation assets face risks of prolonged unavailability or operational failures, which could result in material losses. External events such as fires, floods, or system failures also threaten revenue continuity.
Medium
Demand Growth Risk
Efficiency gains and distributed energy solutions are slowing power demand, potentially limiting long‑term growth for centralized generators like Vistra. A slower demand trajectory could compress future revenue and EBITDA growth.
Lower
ESG Performance
Vistra’s ESG rating is medium risk with a poor peer ranking, indicating potential sustainability challenges. Weak ESG performance could affect regulatory compliance, investor sentiment, and access to capital.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why VST Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
AI & Data Center Power Demand
Vistra has secured long‑term PPAs with major tech firms such as Meta and Amazon, providing carbon‑free energy from its nuclear fleet. The 20‑year Meta agreement covers over 2,600 MW of zero‑carbon power, ensuring a steady revenue stream as AI workloads grow.
Multi‑Decade Power Purchase Agreements
Vistra’s long‑term contracts, including the 20‑year Meta deal, lock in pricing and cash‑flow visibility for decades. These agreements give the company pricing power and reduce exposure to short‑term market volatility.
Expanding Renewable and Storage Portfolio
The company is actively adding battery storage and solar projects, signaling a commitment to cleaner energy sources. This expansion diversifies its generation mix and positions Vistra to meet future clean‑energy demand.
Strong Capital Allocation and Debt Management
Despite carrying debt, most of Vistra’s obligations mature after 2030, reducing refinancing risk. The firm also repurchases shares and has a track record of increasing dividends, reflecting disciplined capital allocation.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
VST Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$160.38
52W Range Position
31%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$133.73
+19.9% from the low
52-Week High
$219.82
-27.0% from the high
1 Month
+5.80%
3 Month
+12.10%
YTD
-2.9%
1 Year
+14.6%
3Y CAGR
+89.9%
5Y CAGR
+58.1%
10Y CAGR
+26.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
VST vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
18.7x
vs 12.5x median
+50% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.7%
vs +8.0% median
+21% above peer median
Net Margin
5.6%
vs 8.8% median
-36% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VST VST Vistra Corp. | $54.3B | 18.7x | +9.7% | 5.6% | Buy | +41.9% |
NRG NRG NRG Energy, Inc. | $30.0B | 17.2x | +9.1% | 2.8% | Buy | +23.2% |
CEG CEG Constellation Energy Corporation | $100.1B | 27.6x | +10.0% | 9.1% | Buy | +26.5% |
GEN GEN Gen Digital Inc. | $12.2B | 7.7x | +6.8% | 12.8% | Buy | +62.4% |
DYN DYN Dyne Therapeutics, Inc. | $2.9B | — | — | — | Buy | +115.2% |
AES AES The AES Corporation | $10.2B | 6.2x | +0.9% | 8.4% | Hold | +27.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
VST Dividend and Capital Return
VST returns capital mainly through $1.0B/year in buybacks (1.9% buyback yield), with a modest 0.56% dividend — combining for 2.5% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 6 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.9%
Dividend Yield
0.56%
Payout Ratio
32.4%
How VST Splits Its Return
Div 0.56%
Buyback 1.9%
Dividend 0.56%Buybacks 1.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.90
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
6Y
3Y Div CAGR
7.6%
5Y Div CAGR
10.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.0B
Estimated Shares Retired
6M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
339M
At 1.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.23 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.90 | +3.2% | 1.9% | 2.4% |
| 2024 | $0.87 | +6.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% |
| 2023 | $0.82 | +13.3% | 8.6% | 10.8% |
| 2022 | $0.72 | +20.7% | 19.9% | 23.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsVST Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Vistra Corp. (VST) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Vistra Corp. (VST) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 21 analysts covering the stock, 19 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 2 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $228, implying +41.9% from the current price of $160.
02What is the VST stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for VST is $228 based on 21 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $293 (+82.7% from today), and the low-end target is $203 (+26.6%). The base case model target is $429.
03Is Vistra Corp. (VST) stock overvalued in 2026?
VST trades at 18.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Vistra Corp. (VST) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for VST in 2026 are: (1) Commodity Price Volatility — Vistra's adjusted EBITDA was hit by an estimated $1. (2) Debt Burden — As of December 31, 2025, Vistra carries ~$20. (3) Margin & Collateral Risk — Failure to meet margin or collateral obligations could trigger significant losses and force the company to liquidate assets or raise capital under unfavorable terms. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Vistra Corp.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates VST will report consensus revenue of $18.3B (+9.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.16 (+85.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $17.9B in revenue.
06When does Vistra Corp. (VST) report its next earnings?
Vistra Corp. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $1.29 and revenue of $5.7B. Over recent quarters, VST has beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Vistra Corp. generate?
Vistra Corp. (VST) generated $640M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 3.8%. VST returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.6% yield) and share repurchases ($1.0B TTM).