Upside case
Bull case
$281+199.8%
TTE would need investors to value it at roughly 26x earnings — about 18x more generous than today's 9x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
TotalEnergies SE (TTE) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
34
analysts
20 bullish · 1 bearish · 34 covering TTE
Strong Buy
1
Buy
19
Hold
13
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$75
-19.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$28 – $281
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
34
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
8.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $208.4B
TTE price targets
Three scenarios for where TTE stock could go
Current
~$94
Confidence
43 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $94
Bear
$28
Base
$116
Bull
$281
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$116+24.0%
At 11x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$28-70.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 6x multiple contraction could push TTE down roughly 70% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
TotalEnergies SE
TTE · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedDecember year-end
TotalEnergies is a global integrated energy company that produces and markets oil, natural gas, and increasingly renewable electricity. It generates revenue through four main segments: Exploration & Production (upstream oil and gas), Refining & Chemicals (downstream processing), Integrated Gas & Power (LNG and electricity), and Marketing & Services (retail fuel stations). The company's competitive advantage lies in its integrated model—spanning upstream production to downstream retail—and its strategic pivot toward low-carbon energy including LNG and renewables.
Market Cap
$208.4B
Revenue TTM
$184.0B
Net Income TTM
$15.1B
Net Margin
8.2%
TTE Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-0.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.57/$1.62
Revenue
$45.2B/$43.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.77/$1.81
Revenue
$43.6B/$32.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.73/$1.80
Revenue
$45.9B/$34.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.45/$1.99
Revenue
$49.5B/$44.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.57/$1.62 | -3.1% | $45.2B/$43.7B | +3.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.77/$1.81 | -2.2% | $43.6B/$32.6B | +33.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.73/$1.80 | -3.9% | $45.9B/$34.0B | +35.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.45/$1.99 | +23.1% | $49.5B/$44.6B | +11.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$179.8B
-2.2% YoY
FY2
$170.1B
-5.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.60
+9.3% YoY
FY2
$7.17
-5.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$11.0B
FCF Margin: 6.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
TTE beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
TTE Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $201.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Rest of Europe
45.0%
+1.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Rest of Europe is the largest reported region at 45.0%, up 1.7% YoY.
TTE Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $124 — implies +33.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
33.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TTE
16.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
36% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
TTE
16.2x
vs
Energy
17.1x
5% discount
vs TTE 5Y Avg P/E
Today
16.2x
vs
5Y Average
8.7x
+86% premium
Forward PE
8.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
-54%
Energy
13.9x
-36%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
16.2x
S&P 500
25.1x
-36%
Energy
17.1x
-5%
5Y Avg
8.7x
+86%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Energy
0.53x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
7.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
-53%
Energy
8.0x
-10%
5Y Avg
4.2x
+71%
Price/FCF
19.3x
S&P 500
21.1x
-9%
Energy
13.8x
+40%
5Y Avg
8.2x
+136%
Price/Sales
1.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-63%
Energy
1.6x
-31%
5Y Avg
0.7x
+63%
Dividend Yield
4.08%
S&P 500
1.87%
+118%
Energy
2.73%
+49%
5Y Avg
5.79%
-30%
| Metric | TTE | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg TTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 8.8x | 19.1x-54% | 13.9x-36% | — |
| Trailing PE | 16.2x | 25.1x-36% | 17.1x | 8.7x+86% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 0.53x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.2x | 15.2x-53% | 8.0x-10% | 4.2x+71% |
| Price/FCF | 19.3x | 21.1x | 13.8x+40% | 8.2x+136% |
| Price/Sales | 1.1x | 3.1x-63% | 1.6x-31% | 0.7x+63% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.08% | 1.87% | 2.73% | 5.79% |
TTE trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTTE Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
TTE returns 7.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$184.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-4.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
30.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
12.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
8.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.95
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$11.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
6.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$26.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$35.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.2× FCF
~3.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
12.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
7.9%
Dividend
4.1%
Buyback
3.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$8.0B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.82
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
64.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
2.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTTE Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Geopolitical & Market Volatility
TotalEnergies operates in a global energy market that is highly sensitive to commodity price swings, geopolitical events, and market condition changes. The company’s significant exposure to the Middle East was highlighted by an incident at the SATORP refinery—a joint venture with Aramco—that caused damage and operational shutdowns, illustrating the potential for sudden disruptions.
High Risk
Transition Risks & Fossil Fuel Expansion
Despite positioning itself as a cleaner energy transition, TotalEnergies continues to expand its fossil fuel business, especially LNG, until at least 2030. This strategy carries high transition risks as it relies on continued demand for oil and gas, which is increasingly challenged by climate‑change policies and the global shift toward renewable energy. Investments in integrated electricity have decreased while those in oil and gas have increased.
High Risk
Operational & Safety Risks
TotalEnergies’ operations involve inherent risks such as major industrial accidents, occupational incidents, transportation mishaps, and health and safety concerns for consumers. The SATORP refinery incident exemplifies the potential for operational disruptions, underscoring the importance of robust safety protocols.
Medium
Financial & Valuation Risks
While TotalEnergies maintains a solid financial position with current assets covering liabilities, its long‑term debt continues to increase. Some analyses suggest the stock may be overvalued relative to industry peers based on certain valuation metrics, while other metrics indicate it could be undervalued. Earnings estimate revisions are a critical factor influencing stock prices.
Medium
Human Rights Concerns
Expansion projects such as the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) and Mozambique LNG have been linked to human rights violations or are located in areas with vulnerable ecosystems. Financial institutions involved in these projects are urged to demand independent investigations into the human rights situation on the ground.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TTE Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Diversified Energy Portfolio
TotalEnergies operates across oil, biofuels, natural gas, green gases, renewables, and electricity on a global scale, providing a broad energy offering that allows the company to benefit from various market dynamics.
LNG & Renewable Expansion
The company is actively expanding its Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and integrated power sectors, expected to generate stable and predictable revenue streams. TotalEnergies is also investing in renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power.
Strong Shareholder Returns
TotalEnergies has a clear capital return policy that includes dividends and buybacks. The company has been increasing its dividend payments over the years, and the dividend yield is considered promising and above the market average.
Positive Investor Sentiment
The stock has a relatively low short percentage of float, indicating generally positive investor sentiment.
Technical Strength
Recent technical analysis shows a breakout above key resistance levels and a reclaim of important moving averages, suggesting a potential shift toward a bullish trend.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TTE Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$93.60
52W Range Position
100%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$57.19
+63.7% from the low
52-Week High
$93.67
-0.1% from the high
1 Month
+1.46%
3 Month
+27.78%
YTD
+40.7%
1 Year
+63.1%
3Y CAGR
+14.8%
5Y CAGR
+14.8%
10Y CAGR
+6.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TTE vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
8.8x
vs 10.8x median
-18% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-2.2%
vs +3.3% median
-167% below peer median
Net Margin
8.2%
vs 6.7% median
+23% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TTE TTE TotalEnergies SE | $208.4B | 8.8x | -2.2% | 8.2% | Buy | -19.9% |
XOM XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation | $656.4B | 15.6x | +7.0% | 8.9% | Hold | +3.6% |
CVX CVX Chevron Corporation | $384.4B | 15.9x | +10.2% | 6.7% | Buy | -0.9% |
SHE SHEL Shell plc | $253.9B | 9.1x | +3.3% | 6.7% | Buy | +5.5% |
BP BP BP p.l.c. | $121.4B | 9.1x | +2.9% | 1.6% | Hold | -5.6% |
E E Eni S.p.A. | $83.1B | 10.8x | -3.4% | 3.3% | Hold | +13.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TTE Dividend and Capital Return
TTE returns 7.9% total yield, led by a 4.08% dividend. Buybacks add another 3.9%.
Dividend WatchFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
7.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.9%
Dividend Yield
4.08%
Payout Ratio
64.4%
How TTE Splits Its Return
Div 4.08%
Buyback 3.9%
Dividend 4.08%Buybacks 3.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.82
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.7%
5Y Div CAGR
14.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
11 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$8.0B
Estimated Shares Retired
86M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.2B
At 3.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $4.90 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $7.65 | +83.2% | 5.5% | 11.4% |
| 2024 | $4.18 | +7.3% | 6.2% | 12.2% |
| 2023 | $3.89 | -44.8% | 5.6% | 10.2% |
| 2022 | $7.05 | +81.2% | 4.8% | 11.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsTTE Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is TotalEnergies SE (TTE) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
TotalEnergies SE (TTE) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 34 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $75, implying -19.9% from the current price of $94. The bear case scenario is $28 and the bull case is $281.
02What is the TTE stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TTE is $75 based on 34 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $83 (-11.3% from today), and the low-end target is $71 (-24.1%). The base case model target is $116.
03Is TotalEnergies SE (TTE) stock overvalued in 2026?
TTE trades at 8.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for TotalEnergies SE (TTE) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TTE in 2026 are: (1) Geopolitical & Market Volatility — TotalEnergies operates in a global energy market that is highly sensitive to commodity price swings, geopolitical events, and market condition changes. (2) Transition Risks & Fossil Fuel Expansion — Despite positioning itself as a cleaner energy transition, TotalEnergies continues to expand its fossil fuel business, especially LNG, until at least 2030. (3) Operational & Safety Risks — TotalEnergies’ operations involve inherent risks such as major industrial accidents, occupational incidents, transportation mishaps, and health and safety concerns for consumers. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is TotalEnergies SE's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TTE will report consensus revenue of $179.8B (-2.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.60 (+9.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $170.1B in revenue.
06When does TotalEnergies SE (TTE) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for TTE is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does TotalEnergies SE generate?
TotalEnergies SE (TTE) generated $11.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 6.0%. TTE returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.1% yield) and share repurchases ($8.0B TTM).