Upside case
Bull case
$109+178.5%
BP would need investors to value it at roughly 21x earnings — about 13x more generous than today's 7x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
BP p.l.c. (BP) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
44
analysts
19 bullish · 2 bearish · 44 covering BP
Strong Buy
0
Buy
19
Hold
23
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$43
+9.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$52 – $109
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
44
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
7.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $102.1B
BP price targets
Three scenarios for where BP stock could go
Current
~$39
Confidence
43 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $39
Bear
$52
Base
$83
Bull
$109
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$83+111.4%
At 16x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$52+33.2%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push BP down roughly 33% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
BP p.l.c.
BP · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedDecember year-end
BP is a global integrated oil and gas company that explores for, produces, refines, and markets petroleum products while increasingly investing in low-carbon energy. It makes money primarily through oil and gas production (~60% of profits), refining and trading, and its global retail fuel and convenience network. The company's scale, integrated operations—from wells to gas stations—and growing low-carbon portfolio provide its competitive advantage in the energy transition.
Market Cap
$102.1B
Revenue TTM
$194.6B
Net Income TTM
$3.2B
Net Margin
1.6%
BP Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.90/$0.68
Revenue
$47.2B/$41.6B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.85/$0.72
Revenue
$48.4B/$44.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.60/$0.57
Revenue
$47.4B/$42.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.24/$0.91
Revenue
$52.3B/$48.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.90/$0.68 | +32.4% | $47.2B/$41.6B | +13.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.85/$0.72 | +18.1% | $48.4B/$44.4B | +8.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.60/$0.57 | +5.3% | $47.4B/$42.9B | +10.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.24/$0.91 | +36.3% | $52.3B/$48.5B | +7.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$202.0B
+3.8% YoY
FY2
$206.7B
+2.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.41
+96.4% YoY
FY2
$1.84
-23.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$11.4B
FCF Margin: 5.9%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.50
Expected Revenue
$61.8B
BP beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
BP Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $158.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Oil and Gas, Oil Products
71.9%
-5.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Non-US
70.1%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Oil and Gas, Oil Products is the largest disclosed segment at 71.9% of FY 2025 revenue, down 5.6% YoY.
Non-US is the largest reported region at 70.1%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
BP Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $57 — implies +46.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
46.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BP
1916.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+7740% premium
vs Energy Trailing P/E
BP
1916.7x
vs
Energy
15.5x
+12304% premium
vs BP 5Y Avg P/E
Today
1916.7x
vs
5Y Average
9.4x
+20331% premium
Forward PE
7.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
-60%
Energy
12.5x
-40%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
1916.7x
S&P 500
24.4x
+7740%
Energy
15.5x
+12304%
5Y Avg
9.4x
+20331%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
4.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
-71%
Energy
7.8x
-43%
5Y Avg
3.8x
+18%
Price/FCF
9.0x
S&P 500
20.7x
-56%
Energy
13.8x
-35%
5Y Avg
6.4x
+42%
Price/Sales
0.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-83%
Energy
1.4x
-62%
5Y Avg
0.5x
+10%
Dividend Yield
4.89%
S&P 500
1.91%
+156%
Energy
3.47%
+41%
5Y Avg
4.97%
-2%
| Metric | BP | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg BP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 7.4x | 18.8x-60% | 12.5x-40% | — |
| Trailing PE | 1916.7x | 24.4x+7740% | 15.5x+12304% | 9.4x+20331% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.5x | 15.2x-71% | 7.8x-43% | 3.8x+18% |
| Price/FCF | 9.0x | 20.7x-56% | 13.8x-35% | 6.4x+42% |
| Price/Sales | 0.5x | 3.1x-83% | 1.4x-62% | 0.5x |
| Dividend Yield | 4.89% | 1.91% | 3.47% | 4.97% |
BP trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBP Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
BP returns 9.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$194.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
19.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
10.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
1.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.23
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$11.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
5.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$36.6B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$47.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.2× FCF
~4.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
4.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
9.3%
Dividend
4.9%
Buyback
4.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$4.5B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.91
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
9219.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
2.6B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageBP Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Commodity price volatility
Fluctuating oil and gas prices can significantly disrupt BP's earnings and cash flow due to the inherent volatility in the energy sector.
High Risk
Regulatory challenges
BP faces potential disruptions from evolving regulations, particularly in the transition to cleaner energy, which could impact operations and profitability.
High Risk
Geopolitical uncertainties
Political instability and conflicts in key regions could disrupt BP's supply chains, operations, and revenue streams.
Medium
Operational vulnerabilities
Recent incidents like the Olympic pipeline shutdown highlight BP's exposure to operational risks that could affect production and financial performance.
Medium
Market execution risk
BP's ability to sustain returns depends on successful execution of its strategy amid competitive and market pressures.
Lower
Investor sentiment
The stock's modest upside potential (5.5%) reflects cautious investor sentiment, possibly due to broader sector risks.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BP Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High-yield dividend income
BP offers a 5.6% dividend yield, providing attractive income for investors.
Capital appreciation potential
There is potential for 25% capital appreciation, making BP an attractive growth investment.
Integrated energy company
BP's diversified operations across oil, gas, and energy products provide resilience and multiple revenue streams.
Strong cash flow growth
BP's cash flow growth drivers support sustainable returns, dividends, and buybacks.
Global supermajor status
As one of the world's largest oil and gas companies, BP benefits from economies of scale and global reach.
Strategic sustainability focus
BP's strategy includes delivering sustainable value, aligning with long-term energy transition trends.
Optimistic oil price scenario
Higher Brent crude prices ($133 per barrel) could accelerate BP's leverage ratio improvement and financial targets.
Resilient dividend and buybacks
BP's dividend resilience and share buybacks enhance shareholder returns even in volatile markets.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BP Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$39.10
52W Range Position
51%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$29.58
+32.2% from the low
52-Week High
$48.27
-19.0% from the high
1 Month
-14.42%
3 Month
-12.35%
YTD
+9.1%
1 Year
+25.6%
3Y CAGR
+3.7%
5Y CAGR
+8.4%
10Y CAGR
+1.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BP vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
7.4x
vs 9.2x median
-19% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.8%
vs +5.2% median
-27% below peer median
Net Margin
1.6%
vs 7.0% median
-77% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BP BP BP p.l.c. | $102.1B | 7.4x | +3.8% | 1.6% | Hold | +9.6% |
XOM XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation | $584.0B | 12.5x | +5.2% | 8.9% | Hold | +23.4% |
CVX CVX Chevron Corporation | $346.5B | 12.1x | +8.6% | 6.7% | Buy | +15.3% |
SHE SHEL Shell plc | $222.2B | 7.8x | +6.8% | 7.0% | Buy | +28.9% |
TTE TTE TotalEnergies SE | $179.1B | 7.3x | +2.4% | 8.2% | Buy | -5.9% |
E E Eni S.p.A. | $72.0B | 9.2x | +4.1% | 3.3% | Hold | +31.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BP Dividend and Capital Return
BP returns 9.3% total yield, led by a 4.89% dividend. Buybacks add another 4.4%.
Dividend At RiskFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
9.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.4%
Dividend Yield
4.89%
Payout Ratio
92.2%
How BP Splits Its Return
Div 4.89%
Buyback 4.4%
Dividend 4.89%Buybacks 4.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.91
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
12.6%
5Y Div CAGR
0.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$4.5B
Estimated Shares Retired
115M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.6B
At 4.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.95 | +6.6% | 4.9% | 10.4% |
| 2024 | $1.83 | +9.7% | 8.6% | 14.6% |
| 2023 | $1.67 | +21.9% | 7.6% | 12.2% |
| 2022 | $1.37 | +6.3% | 9.0% | 13.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsBP Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is BP p.l.c. (BP) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
BP p.l.c. (BP) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 44 analysts covering the stock, 19 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 23 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $43, implying +9.6% from the current price of $39. The bear case scenario is $52 and the bull case is $109.
02What is the BP stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BP is $43 based on 44 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $57 (+45.8% from today), and the low-end target is $31 (-20.7%). The base case model target is $83.
03Is BP p.l.c. (BP) stock overvalued in 2026?
BP trades at 7.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for BP p.l.c. (BP) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BP in 2026 are: (1) Commodity price volatility — Fluctuating oil and gas prices can significantly disrupt BP's earnings and cash flow due to the inherent volatility in the energy sector. (2) Regulatory challenges — BP faces potential disruptions from evolving regulations, particularly in the transition to cleaner energy, which could impact operations and profitability. (3) Geopolitical uncertainties — Political instability and conflicts in key regions could disrupt BP's supply chains, operations, and revenue streams. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is BP p.l.c.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BP will report consensus revenue of $202.0B (+3.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.41 (+96.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $206.7B in revenue.
06When does BP p.l.c. (BP) report its next earnings?
BP p.l.c. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $1.50 and revenue of $61.8B. Over recent quarters, BP has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does BP p.l.c. generate?
BP p.l.c. (BP) generated $11.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 5.9%. BP returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.9% yield) and share repurchases ($4.5B TTM).