Upside case
Bull case
$150+221.8%
BP would need investors to value it at roughly 29x earnings — about 20x more generous than today's 9x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
BP p.l.c. (BP) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
44
analysts
17 bullish · 2 bearish · 44 covering BP
Strong Buy
0
Buy
17
Hold
25
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$44
-5.6% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $150
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
44
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
9.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $121.4B
BP price targets
Three scenarios for where BP stock could go
Current
~$47
Confidence
42 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $47
Base
$47
Bull
$150
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$47+0.0%
This is close to how the market is already pricing BP — at roughly 9x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
BP p.l.c.
BP · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedDecember year-end
BP is a global integrated oil and gas company that explores for, produces, refines, and markets petroleum products while increasingly investing in low-carbon energy. It makes money primarily through oil and gas production (~60% of profits), refining and trading, and its global retail fuel and convenience network. The company's scale, integrated operations—from wells to gas stations—and growing low-carbon portfolio provide its competitive advantage in the energy transition.
Market Cap
$121.4B
Revenue TTM
$194.6B
Net Income TTM
$3.2B
Net Margin
1.6%
BP Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.90/$0.68
Revenue
$47.2B/$41.6B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.85/$0.72
Revenue
$48.4B/$44.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.60/$0.57
Revenue
$47.4B/$42.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.24/$1.00
Revenue
$52.3B/$48.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.90/$0.68 | +32.4% | $47.2B/$41.6B | +13.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.85/$0.72 | +18.1% | $48.4B/$44.4B | +8.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.60/$0.57 | +5.3% | $47.4B/$42.9B | +10.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.24/$1.00 | +24.1% | $52.3B/$48.5B | +7.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$200.2B
+2.9% YoY
FY2
$197.0B
-1.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.48
+102.1% YoY
FY2
$1.88
-24.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$11.4B
FCF Margin: 5.9%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
BP beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
BP Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $158.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Oil and Gas, Oil Products
71.9%
-5.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Non-US
70.1%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Oil and Gas, Oil Products is the largest disclosed segment at 71.9% of FY 2025 revenue, down 5.6% YoY.
Non-US is the largest reported region at 70.1%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
BP Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $55 — implies +18.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
18.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BP
2279.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+8978% premium
vs Energy Trailing P/E
BP
2279.4x
vs
Energy
17.1x
+13250% premium
vs BP 5Y Avg P/E
Today
2279.4x
vs
5Y Average
9.4x
+24198% premium
Forward PE
9.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
-53%
Energy
13.9x
-35%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
2279.4x
S&P 500
25.1x
+8978%
Energy
17.1x
+13250%
5Y Avg
9.4x
+24198%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Energy
0.53x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
5.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
-67%
Energy
8.0x
-38%
5Y Avg
3.8x
+33%
Price/FCF
10.7x
S&P 500
21.1x
-49%
Energy
13.8x
-22%
5Y Avg
6.4x
+69%
Price/Sales
0.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-79%
Energy
1.6x
-61%
5Y Avg
0.5x
+31%
Dividend Yield
4.11%
S&P 500
1.87%
+120%
Energy
2.73%
+51%
5Y Avg
4.97%
-17%
| Metric | BP | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg BP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 9.1x | 19.1x-53% | 13.9x-35% | — |
| Trailing PE | 2279.4x | 25.1x+8978% | 17.1x+13250% | 9.4x+24198% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 0.53x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.0x | 15.2x-67% | 8.0x-38% | 3.8x+33% |
| Price/FCF | 10.7x | 21.1x-49% | 13.8x-22% | 6.4x+69% |
| Price/Sales | 0.6x | 3.1x-79% | 1.6x-61% | 0.5x+31% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.11% | 1.87% | 2.73% | 4.97% |
BP trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBP Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
BP returns 7.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$194.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
19.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
10.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
1.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.23
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$11.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
5.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$36.6B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$47.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.2× FCF
~4.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
4.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
7.8%
Dividend
4.1%
Buyback
3.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$4.5B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.91
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
9219.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
2.6B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageBP Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Operational Safety
BP’s upstream and refining operations face significant process safety risks, including potential explosions, fires, or toxic releases. The Deepwater Horizon incident and multiple refinery accidents underscore the catastrophic financial and reputational impact, with billions of dollars in fines and cleanup costs. Inadequate safety procedures and poor management have historically contributed to these failures.
High Risk
Environmental Liability
BP has incurred substantial environmental penalties, notably the Deepwater Horizon disaster, which generated billions of dollars in expenses and fines. Ongoing violations of air and water pollution laws further expose the company to regulatory fines and remediation costs. The company’s continued heavy investment in fossil fuels amid greenwashing accusations heightens transition risk exposure.
High Risk
Financial Market Volatility
BP’s earnings are highly sensitive to oil and gas price swings, exchange rate fluctuations, and macroeconomic conditions. The firm carries a significant debt load, though bankruptcy risk is low, but recent offshore wind impairments raise doubts about return generation in a shifting energy mix. Derivative hedges mitigate some exposure, yet commodity and interest rate volatility remain material.
Medium
Geopolitical & Regulatory
Operating in roughly 80 countries exposes BP to geopolitical tensions, conflicts, and shifting energy demand patterns. Geopolitical fragmentation can slow trade, increase energy security focus, and alter demand mix, while regulatory changes and tax policy shifts pose additional risks. Shareholder pressure on climate disclosure adds further regulatory scrutiny.
Lower
Talent & Cybersecurity
BP faces challenges in attracting and retaining skilled talent, potentially impacting strategic execution. The energy sector’s growing cyber threat landscape, amplified by geopolitical tensions, poses operational risks that could disrupt production and data integrity.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BP Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Record Upstream Reliability & Reserves Replacement
BP achieved a 90% reserves replacement ratio in 2025, up from prior years, while upstream plant reliability and refinery availability topped 96%. These operational gains underpin a stronger production base and cost efficiency.
Robust Cash Flow & Growth Targets
In 2025 BP generated $24.5 billion in operating cash flow and $7.5 billion in underlying replacement cost profit. The company is on track for >20% CAGR in adjusted free cash flow through 2027, a 16%+ ROCE target, and net debt reduction to $14‑18 billion.
Dividend Upside & Shareholder Yield
BP’s quarterly dividend has been increased, delivering a yield above the sector average. The stock trades at a discount to peers, suggesting potential re‑rating as value returns materialize.
Bumerangue Field Discovery Boosts Reserves
The Bumerangue oil and gas field in Brazil, the largest find in 25 years, is expected to add significant production capacity and strengthen BP’s long‑term reserves base.
Activist Pressure for Value Unlocking
Elliott Management, holding 5% of BP, advocates reducing green‑energy focus to unlock shareholder value, potentially accelerating capital deployment and return metrics.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BP Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$46.50
52W Range Position
91%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$27.99
+66.1% from the low
52-Week High
$48.27
-3.7% from the high
1 Month
-2.06%
3 Month
+21.82%
YTD
+29.8%
1 Year
+59.4%
3Y CAGR
+7.8%
5Y CAGR
+11.7%
10Y CAGR
+3.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BP vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
9.1x
vs 10.8x median
-16% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.9%
vs +3.3% median
-15% below peer median
Net Margin
1.6%
vs 6.7% median
-75% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BP BP BP p.l.c. | $121.4B | 9.1x | +2.9% | 1.6% | Hold | -5.6% |
XOM XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation | $656.4B | 15.6x | +7.0% | 8.9% | Hold | +3.6% |
CVX CVX Chevron Corporation | $384.4B | 15.9x | +10.2% | 6.7% | Buy | -0.9% |
SHE SHEL Shell plc | $253.9B | 9.1x | +3.3% | 6.7% | Buy | +5.5% |
TTE TTE TotalEnergies SE | $208.4B | 8.8x | -2.2% | 8.2% | Buy | -19.9% |
E E Eni S.p.A. | $83.1B | 10.8x | -3.4% | 3.3% | Hold | +13.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BP Dividend and Capital Return
BP returns 7.8% total yield, led by a 4.11% dividend. Buybacks add another 3.7%.
Dividend At RiskFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
7.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.7%
Dividend Yield
4.11%
Payout Ratio
92.2%
How BP Splits Its Return
Div 4.11%
Buyback 3.7%
Dividend 4.11%Buybacks 3.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.91
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
12.6%
5Y Div CAGR
0.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$4.5B
Estimated Shares Retired
97M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.6B
At 3.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.99 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.95 | +6.6% | 4.9% | 10.4% |
| 2024 | $1.83 | +9.7% | 8.6% | 14.6% |
| 2023 | $1.67 | +21.9% | 7.6% | 12.2% |
| 2022 | $1.37 | +6.3% | 9.0% | 13.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsBP Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is BP p.l.c. (BP) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
BP p.l.c. (BP) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 44 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 25 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $44, implying -5.6% from the current price of $47.
02What is the BP stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BP is $44 based on 44 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $57 (+22.6% from today), and the low-end target is $31 (-33.3%). The base case model target is $47.
03Is BP p.l.c. (BP) stock overvalued in 2026?
BP trades at 9.1x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for BP p.l.c. (BP) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BP in 2026 are: (1) Operational Safety — BP’s upstream and refining operations face significant process safety risks, including potential explosions, fires, or toxic releases. (2) Environmental Liability — BP has incurred substantial environmental penalties, notably the Deepwater Horizon disaster, which generated billions of dollars in expenses and fines. (3) Financial Market Volatility — BP’s earnings are highly sensitive to oil and gas price swings, exchange rate fluctuations, and macroeconomic conditions. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is BP p.l.c.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BP will report consensus revenue of $200.2B (+2.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.48 (+102.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $197.0B in revenue.
06When does BP p.l.c. (BP) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for BP is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does BP p.l.c. generate?
BP p.l.c. (BP) generated $11.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 5.9%. BP returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.1% yield) and share repurchases ($4.5B TTM).