Upside case
Bull case
$153+94.3%
SHEL would need investors to value it at roughly 15x earnings — about 7x more generous than today's 8x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Shell plc (SHEL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
13
analysts
9 bullish · 0 bearish · 13 covering SHEL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
9
Hold
4
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$102
+28.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$73 – $153
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
13
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
7.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $222.2B
SHEL price targets
Three scenarios for where SHEL stock could go
Current
~$79
Confidence
47 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $79
Bear
$73
Base
$116
Bull
$153
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$116+47.4%
At 11x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$73-7.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push SHEL down roughly 7% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Shell plc
SHEL · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedDecember year-end
Shell is a global integrated energy company that explores for, produces, refines, and markets oil, natural gas, and petrochemical products. It generates revenue primarily through its upstream oil and gas production (~40% of earnings), integrated gas and LNG operations (~30%), and downstream marketing and chemicals businesses (~30%). The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive scale, integrated value chain—from production to retail—and leading positions in liquefied natural gas and deepwater exploration.
Market Cap
$222.2B
Revenue TTM
$266.8B
Net Income TTM
$18.7B
Net Margin
7.0%
SHEL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+9.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.42/$1.13
Revenue
$65.4B/$70.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.86/$1.72
Revenue
$67.7B/$67.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.14/$1.21
Revenue
$64.1B/$62.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.44/$2.14
Revenue
$69.7B/$77.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.42/$1.13 | +25.7% | $65.4B/$70.2B | -6.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.86/$1.72 | +8.1% | $67.7B/$67.7B | +0.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.14/$1.21 | -5.8% | $64.1B/$62.6B | +2.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.44/$2.14 | +14.0% | $69.7B/$77.5B | -10.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$284.8B
+6.8% YoY
FY2
$298.9B
+4.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.93
+20.8% YoY
FY2
$8.17
+3.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$18.8B
FCF Margin: 7.0%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.70
Expected Revenue
$85.2B
SHEL beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
SHEL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $135.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Natural Gas and Natural Gas Liquids (NGL)
41.5%
+12.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Europe
31.1%
-0.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Natural Gas and Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) is the largest disclosed segment at 41.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 12.1% YoY.
Europe is the largest reported region at 31.1%, down 0.7% YoY.
SHEL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $121 — implies +53.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
53.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SHEL
13.1x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
46% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
SHEL
13.1x
vs
Energy
15.5x
15% discount
vs SHEL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
13.1x
vs
5Y Average
9.9x
+32% premium
Forward PE
7.8x
S&P 500
18.8x
-59%
Energy
12.5x
-38%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
13.1x
S&P 500
24.4x
-46%
Energy
15.5x
-15%
5Y Avg
9.9x
+32%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
6.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
-61%
Energy
7.8x
-24%
5Y Avg
4.6x
+30%
Price/FCF
10.2x
S&P 500
20.7x
-51%
Energy
13.8x
-26%
5Y Avg
6.8x
+50%
Price/Sales
0.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-73%
Energy
1.4x
-41%
5Y Avg
0.7x
+21%
Dividend Yield
3.62%
S&P 500
1.91%
+89%
Energy
3.47%
+4%
5Y Avg
3.84%
-6%
| Metric | SHEL | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg SHEL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 7.8x | 18.8x-59% | 12.5x-38% | — |
| Trailing PE | 13.1x | 24.4x-46% | 15.5x-15% | 9.9x+32% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.0x | 15.2x-61% | 7.8x-24% | 4.6x+30% |
| Price/FCF | 10.2x | 20.7x-51% | 13.8x-26% | 6.8x+50% |
| Price/Sales | 0.8x | 3.1x-73% | 1.4x-41% | 0.7x+21% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.62% | 1.91% | 3.47% | 3.84% |
SHEL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSHEL Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
SHEL returns 10.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$266.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-5.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
15.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
10.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.56
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$18.8B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
7.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$30.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$74.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.0× FCF
~4.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
10.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
10.5%
Dividend
3.6%
Buyback
6.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$15.2B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.85
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
47.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
2.8B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSHEL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Commodity price volatility
Softer commodity prices pose sector-wide pressures, impacting Shell's revenue and profitability.
Medium
Valuation downside risk
AI models forecast a -5.4% decline in SHEL stock price to $81.03, indicating potential overvaluation.
Medium
LNG demand uncertainty
Global LNG demand growth remains a key monitorable, with expansion projects like ARC Resources adding execution risk.
Lower
Strategic execution challenges
Shell's complex global operations and joint ventures introduce risks in delivering secure energy supplies.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SHEL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Higher oil/gas prices
Bull case assumes sustained higher oil and gas prices, which would benefit Shell's revenue and profitability.
Capital returns and buybacks
Successful execution of capital returns and share buybacks could enhance shareholder value and stock performance.
Margin expansion
Continued margin expansion may lead to a re-rating of Shell's stock toward the high end of consensus estimates.
Sharper oil/gas/LNG focus
Shell may redeploy capital from slower-return businesses into higher-return oil, gas, and LNG operations, improving efficiency.
Strong cash returns
Near-term cash returns are prioritized, which could attract investors seeking immediate financial benefits.
Global energy supply role
Shell's established global presence and ability to deliver secure energy supplies reinforce its market position and stability.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SHEL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$78.81
52W Range Position
42%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$67.25
+17.2% from the low
52-Week High
$94.90
-17.0% from the high
1 Month
-11.04%
3 Month
-15.03%
YTD
+4.5%
1 Year
+9.5%
3Y CAGR
+9.3%
5Y CAGR
+15.1%
10Y CAGR
+4.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SHEL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
7.8x
vs 9.2x median
-15% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.8%
vs +4.1% median
+63% above peer median
Net Margin
7.0%
vs 6.7% median
+5% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SHE SHEL Shell plc | $222.2B | 7.8x | +6.8% | 7.0% | Buy | +28.9% |
XOM XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation | $584.0B | 12.5x | +5.2% | 8.9% | Hold | +23.4% |
CVX CVX Chevron Corporation | $346.5B | 12.1x | +8.6% | 6.7% | Buy | +15.3% |
BP BP BP p.l.c. | $102.1B | 7.4x | +3.8% | 1.6% | Hold | +9.6% |
TTE TTE TotalEnergies SE | $179.1B | 7.3x | +2.4% | 8.2% | Buy | -5.9% |
E E Eni S.p.A. | $72.0B | 9.2x | +4.1% | 3.3% | Hold | +31.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SHEL Dividend and Capital Return
SHEL returns capital mainly through $15.2B/year in buybacks (6.8% buyback yield), with a modest 3.62% dividend — combining for 10.5% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
10.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
6.8%
Dividend Yield
3.62%
Payout Ratio
47.6%
How SHEL Splits Its Return
Div 3.62%
Buyback 6.8%
Dividend 3.62%Buybacks 6.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.85
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
13.1%
5Y Div CAGR
8.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$15.2B
Estimated Shares Retired
193M
Approx. Share Reduction
6.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.8B
At 6.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.53 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.86 | +4.1% | 7.0% | 10.8% |
| 2024 | $2.75 | +11.2% | 7.4% | 11.7% |
| 2023 | $2.47 | +24.9% | 6.9% | 10.7% |
| 2022 | $1.98 | +20.7% | 9.0% | 12.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsSHEL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Shell plc (SHEL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Shell plc (SHEL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 13 analysts covering the stock, 9 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 4 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $102, implying +28.9% from the current price of $79. The bear case scenario is $73 and the bull case is $153.
02What is the SHEL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SHEL is $102 based on 13 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $122 (+55.3% from today), and the low-end target is $89 (+12.9%). The base case model target is $116.
03Is Shell plc (SHEL) stock overvalued in 2026?
SHEL trades at 7.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Shell plc (SHEL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SHEL in 2026 are: (1) Commodity price volatility — Softer commodity prices pose sector-wide pressures, impacting Shell's revenue and profitability. (2) Valuation downside risk — AI models forecast a -5. (3) LNG demand uncertainty — Global LNG demand growth remains a key monitorable, with expansion projects like ARC Resources adding execution risk. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Shell plc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SHEL will report consensus revenue of $284.8B (+6.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.93 (+20.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $298.9B in revenue.
06When does Shell plc (SHEL) report its next earnings?
Shell plc is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $2.70 and revenue of $85.2B. Over recent quarters, SHEL has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Shell plc generate?
Shell plc (SHEL) generated $18.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 7.0%. SHEL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.6% yield) and share repurchases ($15.2B TTM).