Upside case
Bull case
$332+280.3%
SHEL would need investors to value it at roughly 34x earnings — about 25x more generous than today's 9x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Shell plc (SHEL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
12
analysts
8 bullish · 0 bearish · 12 covering SHEL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
8
Hold
4
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$95
+8.6% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $332
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
12
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
8.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $246.8B
SHEL price targets
Three scenarios for where SHEL stock could go
Current
~$87
Confidence
49 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $87
Base
$101
Bull
$332
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$101+16.2%
At 10x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Shell plc
SHEL · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedDecember year-end
Shell is a global integrated energy company that explores for, produces, refines, and markets oil, natural gas, and petrochemical products. It generates revenue primarily through its upstream oil and gas production (~40% of earnings), integrated gas and LNG operations (~30%), and downstream marketing and chemicals businesses (~30%). The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive scale, integrated value chain—from production to retail—and leading positions in liquefied natural gas and deepwater exploration.
Market Cap
$246.8B
Revenue TTM
$266.4B
Net Income TTM
$17.8B
Net Margin
6.7%
SHEL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+10.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.84/$1.54
Revenue
$69.2B/$70.9B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.42/$1.13
Revenue
$65.4B/$70.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.86/$1.72
Revenue
$67.7B/$67.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.14/$1.21
Revenue
$64.1B/$62.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.84/$1.54 | +19.5% | $69.2B/$70.9B | -2.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.42/$1.13 | +25.7% | $65.4B/$70.2B | -6.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.86/$1.72 | +8.1% | $67.7B/$67.7B | +0.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.14/$1.21 | -5.8% | $64.1B/$62.6B | +2.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$275.3B
+3.3% YoY
FY2
$256.8B
-6.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.34
+19.6% YoY
FY2
$6.99
-4.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$22.7B
FCF Margin: 8.5%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.12
Expected Revenue
$77.5B
SHEL beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
SHEL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $135.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Natural Gas and Natural Gas Liquids (NGL)
41.5%
+12.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Europe
31.1%
-0.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Natural Gas and Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) is the largest disclosed segment at 41.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 12.1% YoY.
Europe is the largest reported region at 31.1%, down 0.7% YoY.
SHEL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $98 — implies +10.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
10.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SHEL
14.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
43% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
SHEL
14.5x
vs
Energy
16.9x
14% discount
vs SHEL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
14.5x
vs
5Y Average
9.9x
+46% premium
Forward PE
8.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
-53%
Energy
13.2x
-33%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
14.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
-43%
Energy
16.9x
-14%
5Y Avg
9.9x
+46%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
7.7x
S&P 500
15.3x
-50%
Energy
8.1x
-6%
5Y Avg
4.8x
+60%
Price/FCF
11.3x
S&P 500
21.3x
-47%
Energy
14.1x
-20%
5Y Avg
6.8x
+67%
Price/Sales
0.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-71%
Energy
1.6x
-41%
5Y Avg
0.7x
+35%
Dividend Yield
3.27%
S&P 500
1.88%
+74%
Energy
2.97%
+10%
5Y Avg
3.84%
-15%
| Metric | SHEL | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg SHEL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 8.9x | 19.1x-53% | 13.2x-33% | — |
| Trailing PE | 14.5x | 25.2x-43% | 16.9x-14% | 9.9x+46% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.7x | 15.3x-50% | 8.1x | 4.8x+60% |
| Price/FCF | 11.3x | 21.3x-47% | 14.1x-20% | 6.8x+67% |
| Price/Sales | 0.9x | 3.1x-71% | 1.6x-41% | 0.7x+35% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.27% | 1.88% | 2.97% | 3.84% |
SHEL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSHEL Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
SHEL generates $22.7B in free cash flow at a 8.5% margin — returns 9.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$266.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-6.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
16.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
11.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.14
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$22.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$30.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$74.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.3× FCF
~3.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
9.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
9.4%
Dividend
3.3%
Buyback
6.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$15.2B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.85
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
47.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
2.8B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSHEL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Commodity Price Volatility
Fluctuations in oil, natural gas, and chemical prices directly affect Shell’s investment decisions, operational performance, and financial position. Sudden price drops can erode margins and delay capital projects, while spikes may increase costs and squeeze profitability.
High Risk
Operational Failures
Weaknesses in permit‑to‑work systems, isolation controls, maintenance, and assurance gaps under operational pressure have been identified. These failures can lead to costly shutdowns, safety incidents, and regulatory penalties.
High Risk
Legal & Regulatory Risk
Shell faces global lawsuits related to climate change and has been implicated in human rights abuses. Regulatory developments, including climate‑change legislation, could impose fines, restrict operations, and increase compliance costs.
High Risk
Environmental Spill Risk
Shell has been accountable for numerous oil spills, resulting in environmental damage and health issues for affected communities. Spill incidents trigger cleanup costs, legal liabilities, and reputational harm that can depress share price.
Medium
Currency Fluctuations
As a global company, changes in currency values and exchange controls can affect financial performance. Volatile foreign‑exchange rates may erode earnings from overseas operations and increase hedging costs.
Medium
Energy Transition Risk
Employees and shareholders press Shell for clarity on its strategy amid the global shift away from fossil fuels. Stranded assets and declining demand could erode long‑term profitability if renewable investment remains a small proportion of total spend.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SHEL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
LNG & Trading Growth
Shell’s LNG business is a core advantage, generating cash flow from price arbitrage across regions. The company targets a 4‑5% annual increase in LNG sales through 2030, positioning it to capture rising global demand.
Shareholder Capital Return
Shell maintains a strong balance sheet and commits to returning 40‑50% of operating cash flow to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. This policy underpins a steady income stream for investors.
Low‑Carbon Investment Commitment
Between 2023 and 2025, Shell plans to invest $10‑15 billion in low‑carbon solutions, accelerating its transition portfolio. This capital allocation supports long‑term growth and ESG credentials.
Capital Discipline & Cost Cuts
The firm has trimmed its 2025‑2028 capital expenditure guidance to $20‑22 billion, reflecting a disciplined investment approach. Additionally, it aims to lift its structural cost‑reduction target to $5‑7 billion by 2028.
Undervaluation Potential
Discounted cash flow models suggest Shell’s fair value is significantly higher than its current market price, indicating upside potential for investors.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SHEL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$87.20
52W Range Position
74%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$64.81
+34.5% from the low
52-Week High
$94.90
-8.1% from the high
1 Month
-6.88%
3 Month
+15.82%
YTD
+15.6%
1 Year
+33.9%
3Y CAGR
+12.7%
5Y CAGR
+16.8%
10Y CAGR
+5.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SHEL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
8.9x
vs 10.3x median
-14% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.3%
vs +2.9% median
+17% above peer median
Net Margin
6.7%
vs 6.7% median
+0% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SHE SHEL Shell plc | $246.8B | 8.9x | +3.3% | 6.7% | Buy | +8.6% |
XOM XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation | $629.6B | 15.0x | +7.0% | 8.9% | Hold | +8.0% |
CVX CVX Chevron Corporation | $369.4B | 15.2x | +10.2% | 6.7% | Buy | +3.1% |
BP BP BP p.l.c. | $116.5B | 8.7x | +2.9% | 1.6% | Hold | -1.7% |
TTE TTE TotalEnergies SE | $200.3B | 8.5x | -2.2% | 8.2% | Buy | -16.6% |
E E Eni S.p.A. | $79.3B | 10.3x | -3.4% | 3.3% | Hold | +19.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SHEL Dividend and Capital Return
SHEL returns capital mainly through $15.2B/year in buybacks (6.2% buyback yield), with a modest 3.27% dividend — combining for 9.4% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
9.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
6.2%
Dividend Yield
3.27%
Payout Ratio
47.5%
How SHEL Splits Its Return
Div 3.27%
Buyback 6.2%
Dividend 3.27%Buybacks 6.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.85
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
13.1%
5Y Div CAGR
8.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$15.2B
Estimated Shares Retired
174M
Approx. Share Reduction
6.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.8B
At 6.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.74 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.86 | +4.1% | 7.0% | 10.8% |
| 2024 | $2.75 | +11.2% | 7.4% | 11.7% |
| 2023 | $2.47 | +24.9% | 6.9% | 10.7% |
| 2022 | $1.98 | +20.7% | 9.0% | 12.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsSHEL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Shell plc (SHEL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Shell plc (SHEL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 12 analysts covering the stock, 8 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 4 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $95, implying +8.6% from the current price of $87.
02What is the SHEL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SHEL is $95 based on 12 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $101 (+15.8% from today), and the low-end target is $89 (+2.1%). The base case model target is $101.
03Is Shell plc (SHEL) stock overvalued in 2026?
SHEL trades at 8.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Shell plc (SHEL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SHEL in 2026 are: (1) Commodity Price Volatility — Fluctuations in oil, natural gas, and chemical prices directly affect Shell’s investment decisions, operational performance, and financial position. (2) Operational Failures — Weaknesses in permit‑to‑work systems, isolation controls, maintenance, and assurance gaps under operational pressure have been identified. (3) Legal & Regulatory Risk — Shell faces global lawsuits related to climate change and has been implicated in human rights abuses. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Shell plc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SHEL will report consensus revenue of $275.3B (+3.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.34 (+19.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $256.8B in revenue.
06When does Shell plc (SHEL) report its next earnings?
Shell plc is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $2.12 and revenue of $77.5B. Over recent quarters, SHEL has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Shell plc generate?
Shell plc (SHEL) generated $22.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.5%. SHEL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.3% yield) and share repurchases ($15.2B TTM).