Upside case
Bull case
$699+33.7%
VMI would need investors to value it at roughly 31x earnings — about 8x more generous than today's 23x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Valmont Industries, Inc. (VMI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
14
analysts
5 bullish · 1 bearish · 14 covering VMI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
5
Hold
8
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$476
-9.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$267 – $699
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
14
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
22.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.2B
VMI price targets
Three scenarios for where VMI stock could go
Current
~$523
Confidence
60 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $523
Bear
$267
Base
$630
Bull
$699
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$630+20.5%
At 28x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$267-49.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 11x multiple contraction could push VMI down roughly 49% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Valmont Industries, Inc.
VMI · NYSEIndustrialsConglomeratesDecember year-end
Valmont Industries is a diversified industrial manufacturer that produces engineered metal products for infrastructure and agricultural applications. It generates revenue primarily from two segments: Infrastructure (roughly 70% of sales) through poles, towers, and utility structures, and Agriculture (roughly 30%) through irrigation equipment and precision farming technology. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep engineering expertise, extensive manufacturing scale, and established relationships with government and utility customers who value reliability for critical infrastructure projects.
Market Cap
$10.2B
Revenue TTM
$4.2B
Net Income TTM
$345M
Net Margin
8.3%
VMI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$4.88/$4.72
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.98/$4.64
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.92/$4.95
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$5.51/$4.72
Revenue
$1.0B/$996M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $4.88/$4.72 | +3.4% | $1.1B/$1.0B | +1.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.98/$4.64 | +7.3% | $1.0B/$1.0B | +0.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.92/$4.95 | -0.6% | $1.0B/$1.0B | -0.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.51/$4.72 | +16.7% | $1.0B/$996M | +3.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.2B
+1.6% YoY
FY2
$4.3B
+1.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$19.13
+8.8% YoY
FY2
$20.22
+5.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$419M
FCF Margin: 10.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
VMI beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
VMI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Infrastructure
75.2%
+3.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
72.1%
+3.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Infrastructure is the largest disclosed segment at 75.2% of FY 2025 revenue, up 3.0% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 72.1%, up 3.5% YoY.
VMI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $420 — implies -17.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
17.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
VMI
31.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+23% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
VMI
31.1x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
+20% premium
vs VMI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
31.1x
vs
5Y Average
26.4x
+18% premium
Forward PE
22.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
+20%
Industrials
20.8x
+10%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
31.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
+23%
Industrials
25.9x
+20%
5Y Avg
26.4x
+18%
PEG Ratio
1.51x
S&P 500
1.75x
-14%
Industrials
1.59x
-5%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
18.2x
S&P 500
15.3x
+19%
Industrials
13.9x
+31%
5Y Avg
14.6x
+25%
Price/FCF
32.8x
S&P 500
21.3x
+54%
Industrials
20.6x
+59%
5Y Avg
23.3x
+41%
Price/Sales
2.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-21%
Industrials
1.6x
+57%
5Y Avg
1.6x
+59%
Dividend Yield
0.50%
S&P 500
1.88%
-73%
Industrials
1.24%
-59%
5Y Avg
0.77%
-35%
| Metric | VMI | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg VMI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 22.9x | 19.1x+20% | 20.8x+10% | — |
| Trailing PE | 31.1x | 25.2x+23% | 25.9x+20% | 26.4x+18% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.51x | 1.75x-14% | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.2x | 15.3x+19% | 13.9x+31% | 14.6x+25% |
| Price/FCF | 32.8x | 21.3x+54% | 20.6x+59% | 23.3x+41% |
| Price/Sales | 2.5x | 3.1x-21% | 1.6x+57% | 1.6x+59% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.50% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 0.77% |
VMI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolVMI Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
VMI generates $419M in free cash flow at a 10.1% margin — 16.3% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+2.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
30.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
10.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
8.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$17.58
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$419M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
10.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
16.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
10.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$187M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$869M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.1× FCF
~2.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
20.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.4%
Dividend
0.5%
Buyback
1.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$198M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.63
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
15.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
20M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageVMI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Geopolitical Risks
Valmont Industries (VMI) faces significant geopolitical risks, particularly related to its operations in the Middle East. These tensions have led to operational disruptions and lower sales volumes in affected regions, which could materially impact overall revenue.
High Risk
Valuation Concerns
VMI's stock is currently considered overvalued, with its GF Value significantly higher than its market price. This discrepancy suggests a potential for price corrections if the company's performance does not meet market expectations.
Medium
Execution Risk on Capacity Expansion
The company is investing in expanding its production capacity, but there is a risk of execution missteps such as delays or cost overruns. These issues could hinder VMI's ability to meet demand and achieve expected revenue growth.
Medium
Commodity Price Volatility
Fluctuations in commodity prices can significantly affect farmers' purchasing power, which in turn impacts VMI's sales in its agriculture segment. This volatility poses a risk to revenue stability.
Medium
Macroeconomic Pressures
Elevated interest rates and potential inflationary pressures on costs could negatively impact demand and profitability for VMI, particularly in segments like Lighting and Transportation. These macroeconomic factors are critical to monitor.
Lower
Competition
Valmont faces competitive pressures from both established companies and new entrants in the infrastructure and agriculture markets. Failure to innovate could lead to a loss of market share, although the impact is currently less severe.
Lower
Infrastructure Segment Guidance
Concerns exist regarding a projected decline in contributions from the Infrastructure segment, which could affect long-term profitability. However, this risk is currently considered lower in severity.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why VMI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Infrastructure Segment Strength
Valmont's Infrastructure segment is the largest contributor to its revenue, accounting for 77% of net sales. This segment has shown consistent year-over-year revenue increases, particularly from the Utility and Telecom sectors, driven by long-term investment trends like rising energy demand and grid modernization.
Financial Performance and Health
Valmont has demonstrated robust financial performance, with strong profitability metrics including increased gross profit and operating income. The company maintains a low leverage ratio, and its GF Score of 87/100 indicates strong financial health and growth potential.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
The consensus rating among Wall Street analysts is a 'Moderate Buy' or 'Buy,' with many recommending a 'Strong Buy.' Analysts have raised earnings estimates for VMI, reflecting a positive outlook for the company.
Record Earnings and Guidance
Valmont reported record first-quarter earnings per share in 2026, exceeding analyst expectations. Additionally, the company has raised its full-year 2026 earnings guidance, signaling confidence in its future performance.
Strategic Investments and Acquisitions
Valmont is actively investing in capacity and throughput initiatives, along with strategic acquisitions like RMDS Innovation Inc., to drive future growth. These investments are aimed at enhancing operational efficiency and expanding market reach.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
VMI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$522.81
52W Range Position
98%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$299.24
+74.7% from the low
52-Week High
$528.49
-1.1% from the high
1 Month
+29.58%
3 Month
+10.37%
YTD
+27.0%
1 Year
+72.4%
3Y CAGR
+22.3%
5Y CAGR
+15.3%
10Y CAGR
+14.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
VMI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
22.9x
vs 20.0x median
+15% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.6%
vs +10.6% median
-85% below peer median
Net Margin
8.3%
vs 7.5% median
+11% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VMI VMI Valmont Industries, Inc. | $10.2B | 22.9x | +1.6% | 8.3% | Hold | -9.0% |
ITR ITRN Ituran Location and Control Ltd. | $1.4B | 17.8x | +7.4% | 16.1% | Hold | -4.9% |
PRI PRIM Primoris Services Corporation | $5.5B | 16.9x | +17.2% | 3.3% | Buy | +58.5% |
MYR MYRG MYR Group Inc. | $7.1B | 46.8x | +8.0% | 3.7% | Hold | -20.4% |
AWI AWI Armstrong World Industries, Inc. | $7.1B | 20.0x | +10.6% | 18.6% | Buy | +18.8% |
AAO AAON AAON, Inc. | $8.0B | 49.6x | +19.7% | 7.5% | Buy | +21.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
VMI Dividend and Capital Return
VMI returns capital mainly through $198M/year in buybacks (1.9% buyback yield), with a modest 0.50% dividend — combining for 2.4% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 6 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.9%
Dividend Yield
0.50%
Payout Ratio
15.0%
How VMI Splits Its Return
Div 0.50%
Buyback 1.9%
Dividend 0.50%Buybacks 1.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.63
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
6Y
3Y Div CAGR
7.3%
5Y Div CAGR
8.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$198M
Estimated Shares Retired
378.9K
Approx. Share Reduction
1.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
20M
At 1.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.54 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.72 | +13.3% | 2.4% | 3.0% |
| 2024 | $2.40 | 0.0% | 1.1% | 1.9% |
| 2023 | $2.40 | +9.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% |
| 2022 | $2.20 | +10.0% | 0.6% | 1.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsVMI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Valmont Industries, Inc. (VMI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Valmont Industries, Inc. (VMI) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 14 analysts covering the stock, 5 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $476, implying -9.0% from the current price of $523. The bear case scenario is $267 and the bull case is $699.
02What is the VMI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for VMI is $476 based on 14 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $501 (-4.2% from today), and the low-end target is $450 (-13.9%). The base case model target is $630.
03Is Valmont Industries, Inc. (VMI) stock overvalued in 2026?
VMI trades at 22.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Valmont Industries, Inc. (VMI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for VMI in 2026 are: (1) Geopolitical Risks — Valmont Industries (VMI) faces significant geopolitical risks, particularly related to its operations in the Middle East. (2) Valuation Concerns — VMI's stock is currently considered overvalued, with its GF Value significantly higher than its market price. (3) Execution Risk on Capacity Expansion — The company is investing in expanding its production capacity, but there is a risk of execution missteps such as delays or cost overruns. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Valmont Industries, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates VMI will report consensus revenue of $4.2B (+1.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $19.13 (+8.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.3B in revenue.
06When does Valmont Industries, Inc. (VMI) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for VMI is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Valmont Industries, Inc. generate?
Valmont Industries, Inc. (VMI) generated $419M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 10.1%. VMI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.5% yield) and share repurchases ($198M TTM).