Upside case
Bull case
$14-68.4%
The bull case prices VNOM at 5x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Viper Energy, Inc. (VNOM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
42
analysts
37 bullish · 0 bearish · 42 covering VNOM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
37
Hold
5
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$57
+31.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$7 – $14
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
42
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
16.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $15.5B
VNOM price targets
Three scenarios for where VNOM stock could go
Current
~$43
Confidence
51 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $43
Bear
$7
Base
$10
Bull
$14
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$10-76.0%
At 4x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$7-84.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 14x multiple contraction could push VNOM down roughly 85% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Viper Energy, Inc.
VNOM · NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamDecember year-end
Viper Energy is a mineral and royalty company that owns interests in oil and natural gas properties across premier U.S. shale basins. It generates revenue primarily through royalty payments from production on its mineral acreage — receiving a percentage of oil and gas sales without bearing development costs. Its key advantage is its high-quality, concentrated portfolio in the Permian Basin — the most productive U.S. oil region — which provides stable, low-cost cash flows with minimal operational risk.
Market Cap
$15.5B
Revenue TTM
$1.6B
Net Income TTM
-$46M
Net Margin
-2.9%
VNOM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
64%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+26.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.41/$0.38
Revenue
$297M/$289M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.40/$0.38
Revenue
$418M/$404M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.31/$0.29
Revenue
$435M/$423M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.55/$0.43
Revenue
$511M/$500M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.41/$0.38 | +9.0% | $297M/$289M | +2.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.40/$0.38 | +5.3% | $418M/$404M | +3.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.31/$0.29 | +6.7% | $435M/$423M | +2.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.55/$0.43 | +27.8% | $511M/$500M | +2.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.9B
+16.4% YoY
FY2
$2.1B
+15.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.90
+454.7% YoY
FY2
$1.03
+15.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$4.4B
FCF Margin: -275.7%
Next Earnings
August 3, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.74
Expected Revenue
$633M
VNOM beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
VNOM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $854M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Oil Income
87.9%
+21.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Oil Income is the largest disclosed segment at 87.9% of FY 2024 revenue, up 21.2% YoY.
VNOM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $39 — implies -8.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
8.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
VNOM
-90.0x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
468% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
VNOM
-90.0x
vs
Energy
15.5x
683% discount
vs VNOM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-90.0x
vs
5Y Average
16.4x
650% discount
Forward PE
16.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
-13%
Energy
12.5x
+32%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-90.0x
S&P 500
24.4x
-468%
Energy
15.5x
-683%
5Y Avg
16.4x
-650%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
-2%
Energy
7.8x
+90%
5Y Avg
5.3x
+181%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
20.7x
—
Energy
13.8x
—
5Y Avg
30.0x
—
Price/Sales
11.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+273%
Energy
1.4x
+714%
5Y Avg
3.6x
+221%
Dividend Yield
5.33%
S&P 500
1.91%
+178%
Energy
3.47%
+54%
5Y Avg
10.82%
-51%
| Metric | VNOM | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg VNOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 16.4x | 18.8x-13% | 12.5x+32% | — |
| Trailing PE | -90.0x | 24.4x-468% | 15.5x-683% | 16.4x-650% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.9x | 15.2x | 7.8x+90% | 5.3x+181% |
| Price/FCF | — | 20.7x | 13.8x | 30.0x |
| Price/Sales | 11.5x | 3.1x+273% | 1.4x+714% | 3.6x+221% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.33% | 1.91% | 3.47% | 10.82% |
VNOM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 4 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolVNOM Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
VNOM returns 6.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+77.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
46.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
43.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-2.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.25
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$4.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-275.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-0.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$13M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-0.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.6%
Dividend
5.3%
Buyback
1.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$194M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.30
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
359M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageVNOM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Acquisition cash burn
Viper Energy's high-margin Permian royalties are offset by significant cash burn from acquisitions, posing a risk to financial stability.
Medium
Oil price volatility
The company's performance is tied to oil production, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices and demand.
Medium
Operational execution risk
Recent deals like the Riverbend acquisition introduce execution risks that could impact production guidance and financial results.
Lower
Market sentiment shift
Despite strong recent performance, the stock's flat monthly return and recent decline suggest potential vulnerability to changing market sentiment.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why VNOM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Bullish analyst thesis
Multiple bullish investment theses on Viper Energy, Inc. (VNOM) have been highlighted, suggesting positive sentiment among analysts.
Strong valuation multiples
VNOM's trailing and forward P/E ratios indicate potential undervaluation or growth expectations, with trailing P/E at 15.49 and forward P/E at 55.25.
Energy sector positioning
Viper Energy operates in the Oil & Gas Midstream sector, which may benefit from favorable industry trends and demand dynamics.
Smart-money interest
The presence of bullish theses from notable sources like LLVI Capital and NickFox suggests institutional or smart-money interest in VNOM.
Recent price performance
VNOM's share price was noted at $37.63, reflecting potential momentum or investor confidence in the stock.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
VNOM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$43.21
52W Range Position
51%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$35.10
+23.1% from the low
52-Week High
$51.13
-15.5% from the high
1 Month
-12.03%
3 Month
-8.34%
YTD
+11.4%
1 Year
+5.8%
3Y CAGR
+20.1%
5Y CAGR
+18.6%
10Y CAGR
+8.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
VNOM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
16.4x
vs 20.5x median
-20% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+16.4%
vs +3.7% median
+345% above peer median
Net Margin
-2.9%
vs 51.6% median
-106% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VNO VNOM Viper Energy, Inc. | $15.5B | 16.4x | +16.4% | -2.9% | Buy | +31.7% |
DML DMLP Dorchester Minerals, L.P. | $1.2B | — | +3.7% | 40.8% | — | — |
BSM BSM Black Stone Minerals, L.P. | $3.0B | 19.7x | 0.0% | 63.5% | Buy | +14.2% |
TPL TPL Texas Pacific Land Corporation | $24.5B | 38.7x | +11.3% | 60.0% | Buy | +79.9% |
NRP NRP Natural Resource Partners L.P. | $1.3B | 21.3x | +3.5% | 51.6% | Hold | — |
FAN FANG Diamondback Energy, Inc. | $51.6B | 9.0x | +12.8% | 2.7% | Buy | +19.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
VNOM Dividend and Capital Return
VNOM returns 6.6% total yield, led by a 5.33% dividend. Buybacks add another 1.3%.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
6.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.3%
Dividend Yield
5.33%
Payout Ratio
—
How VNOM Splits Its Return
Div 5.33%
Dividend 5.33%Buybacks 1.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.30
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
-1.5%
5Y Div CAGR
27.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$194M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
359M
At 1.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.20 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.33 | -2.9% | 3.5% | 9.5% |
| 2024 | $2.40 | +37.1% | 0.0% | 4.8% |
| 2023 | $1.75 | -28.3% | 4.1% | 18.0% |
| 2022 | $2.44 | +121.8% | 6.3% | 23.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsVNOM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Viper Energy, Inc. (VNOM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Viper Energy, Inc. (VNOM) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 42 analysts covering the stock, 37 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $57, implying +31.7% from the current price of $43. The bear case scenario is $7 and the bull case is $14.
02What is the VNOM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for VNOM is $57 based on 42 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $61 (+41.2% from today), and the low-end target is $49 (+13.4%). The base case model target is $10.
03Is Viper Energy, Inc. (VNOM) stock overvalued in 2026?
VNOM trades at 16.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Viper Energy, Inc. (VNOM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for VNOM in 2026 are: (1) Acquisition cash burn — Viper Energy's high-margin Permian royalties are offset by significant cash burn from acquisitions, posing a risk to financial stability. (2) Oil price volatility — The company's performance is tied to oil production, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices and demand. (3) Operational execution risk — Recent deals like the Riverbend acquisition introduce execution risks that could impact production guidance and financial results. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Viper Energy, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates VNOM will report consensus revenue of $1.9B (+16.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.90 (+454.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $2.1B in revenue.
06When does Viper Energy, Inc. (VNOM) report its next earnings?
Viper Energy, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-03. Consensus expects EPS of $0.74 and revenue of $633M. Over recent quarters, VNOM has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Viper Energy, Inc. generate?
Viper Energy, Inc. (VNOM) had a free cash outflow of $4.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 275.7%. VNOM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (5.3% yield) and share repurchases ($194M TTM).