Upside case
Bull case
$1058+152.0%
TPL would need investors to value it at roughly 111x earnings — about 67x more generous than today's 44x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
5
analysts
3 bullish · 1 bearish · 5 covering TPL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
3
Hold
1
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$639
+52.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$417 – $1058
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
5
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
43.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $28.9B
TPL price targets
Three scenarios for where TPL stock could go
Current
~$420
Confidence
44 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $420
Bear
$417
Base
$460
Bull
$1058
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$460+9.5%
This is close to how the market is already pricing TPL — at roughly 48x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$417-0.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 0x multiple contraction could push TPL down roughly 1% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Texas Pacific Land Corporation
TPL · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionDecember year-end
Texas Pacific Land Corporation is a unique land and resource management company that owns vast surface and mineral rights in the Permian Basin. It generates revenue primarily through oil and gas royalties (roughly 80% of income), water services operations, and land use fees from easements, commercial leases, and material sales. Its key competitive advantage is its massive, irreplaceable land position — approximately 880,000 acres in the heart of the Permian Basin — which provides a perpetual royalty stream without capital expenditure risk.
Market Cap
$28.9B
Revenue TTM
$839M
Net Income TTM
$504M
Net Margin
60.0%
TPL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-0.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.75/$1.76
Revenue
$196M/$211M
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.68/$1.83
Revenue
$188M/$198M
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.76/$1.92
Revenue
$203M/$175M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.79/$1.79
Revenue
$212M/$208M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.75/$1.76 | -0.4% | $196M/$211M | -7.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.68/$1.83 | -8.0% | $188M/$198M | -5.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.76/$1.92 | -8.5% | $203M/$175M | +16.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.79/$1.79 | +0.0% | $212M/$208M | +2.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$896M
+16.0% YoY
FY2
$1.0B
+12.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.79
-1.5% YoY
FY2
$7.63
+12.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$493M
FCF Margin: 58.8%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.03
Expected Revenue
$242M
TPL beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
TPL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $798M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Oil And Gas Royalties
51.6%
+10.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Oil And Gas Royalties is the largest disclosed segment at 51.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 10.3% YoY.
TPL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $269 — implies -37.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
37.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TPL
60.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+139% premium
vs Energy Trailing P/E
TPL
60.2x
vs
Energy
16.9x
+257% premium
vs TPL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
60.2x
vs
5Y Average
105.6x
43% discount
Forward PE
43.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
+130%
Energy
13.2x
+232%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
60.2x
S&P 500
25.2x
+139%
Energy
16.9x
+257%
5Y Avg
105.6x
-43%
PEG Ratio
2.67x
S&P 500
1.75x
+53%
Energy
0.52x
+411%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
44.0x
S&P 500
15.3x
+189%
Energy
8.1x
+441%
5Y Avg
67.5x
-35%
Price/FCF
59.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
+179%
Energy
14.1x
+321%
5Y Avg
107.9x
-45%
Price/Sales
36.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+1057%
Energy
1.6x
+2221%
5Y Avg
24.8x
+46%
Dividend Yield
0.51%
S&P 500
1.88%
-73%
Energy
2.97%
-83%
5Y Avg
0.44%
+15%
| Metric | TPL | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg TPL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 43.9x | 19.1x+130% | 13.2x+232% | — |
| Trailing PE | 60.2x | 25.2x+139% | 16.9x+257% | 105.6x-43% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.67x | 1.75x+53% | 0.52x+411% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 44.0x | 15.3x+189% | 8.1x+441% | 67.5x-35% |
| Price/FCF | 59.5x | 21.3x+179% | 14.1x+321% | 107.9x-45% |
| Price/Sales | 36.3x | 3.1x+1057% | 1.6x+2221% | 24.8x+46% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.51% | 1.88% | 2.97% | 0.44% |
TPL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTPL Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
TPL generates $493M in free cash flow at a 58.8% margin — 42.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$839M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+15.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
74.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
74.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
60.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$7.30
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$493M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
58.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
42.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
32.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$145M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$112M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
35.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.6%
Dividend
0.5%
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$23M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.14
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
30.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
69M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTPL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Energy sector volatility
Texas Pacific Land Corp. operates in the energy sector, exposing it to significant price swings in oil and gas. Fluctuations in crude prices, coupled with evolving regulatory frameworks, can materially affect royalty income and overall profitability.
Medium
Stock volatility
The company’s shares have shown pronounced market swings, with a decline of more than 15% in early April 2026. Such volatility can erode investor confidence and increase the cost of capital.
Medium
Valuation concerns
TPL’s current P/E, P/S, and P/B ratios are markedly higher than both its historical averages and sector peers, suggesting the stock may be overvalued. A market correction could lead to a sharp price decline.
Medium
Earnings quality risk
Analysts report that free cash flow is significantly weaker than reported profit, indicating potential earnings quality issues. This gap raises concerns about the sustainability of cash generation.
Medium
Water business sensitivity
TPL’s diversification into water management is highly dependent on oil and gas activity. A downturn in energy demand could reduce revenue and demand for water services, impacting the diversification benefit.
Lower
Board member loss
The recent passing of key board member Murray Stahl has introduced uncertainty into corporate governance. While the company’s financial health remains strong, this event may affect strategic decisions and investor perception.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TPL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Strong Management & Capital Allocation
TPL’s management aligns shareholder and management interests, with a history of returning value through share repurchases and a substantial amount authorized for future buybacks.
Robust Free Cash Flow Growth
The company has shown stellar growth in net income and free cash flow over the past decade, with CAGRs of 28.1% and 27.5% respectively, and maintains high free cash flow margins averaging 57.9% over the last five years.
Institutional Investor Confidence
Several hedge funds and asset managers, including State Street Corporation, Bank of America, Citadel, and Horizon Kinetics, have increased holdings, with Horizon Kinetics holding about 18.5% of outstanding shares.
Toll Road Business Model
TPL operates as a large owner of real estate in the oil‑rich Permian Basin, functioning like a "toll road" that collects revenue from oil, water, and pipelines built on its land rather than being a traditional exploration and production company tied to crude oil prices.
Hedge Against Geopolitical Shocks
In scenarios of geopolitical conflict and rising oil prices, TPL is viewed as a potential hedge, with some investors preferring it over oil majors.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TPL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$419.75
52W Range Position
12%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$280.95
+49.4% from the low
52-Week High
$1432.18
-70.7% from the high
1 Month
-6.49%
3 Month
+14.68%
YTD
+40.9%
1 Year
-68.5%
3Y CAGR
-3.5%
5Y CAGR
-4.8%
10Y CAGR
+23.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TPL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
43.9x
vs 18.0x median
+144% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+16.0%
vs +4.3% median
+268% above peer median
Net Margin
60.0%
vs 37.5% median
+60% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TPL TPL Texas Pacific Land Corporation | $28.9B | 43.9x | +16.0% | 60.0% | Buy | +52.2% |
VNO VNOM Viper Energy, Inc. | $17.9B | 21.1x | +36.1% | -2.9% | Buy | +13.6% |
DML DMLP Dorchester Minerals, L.P. | $1.3B | — | +1.5% | 37.5% | — | — |
BSM BSM Black Stone Minerals, L.P. | $2.9B | 14.9x | -5.9% | 63.5% | Buy | +27.7% |
NRP NRP Natural Resource Partners L.P. | $1.5B | 24.4x | +4.3% | 51.6% | Hold | — |
FAN FANG Diamondback Energy, Inc. | $54.9B | 10.9x | +15.8% | 2.7% | Buy | +3.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TPL Dividend and Capital Return
TPL returns 0.6% total yield, led by a 0.51% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
0.51%
Payout Ratio
30.7%
How TPL Splits Its Return
Div 0.51%
Dividend 0.51%Buybacks 0.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.14
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-15.7%
5Y Div CAGR
-5.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$23M
Estimated Shares Retired
55.2K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
69M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.60 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.13 | -73.8% | 0.1% | 0.9% |
| 2024 | $8.15 | +464.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 2023 | $1.44 | -59.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| 2022 | $3.56 | +190.9% | 0.2% | 0.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsTPL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 5 analysts covering the stock, 3 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 1 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $639, implying +52.2% from the current price of $420. The bear case scenario is $417 and the bull case is $1058.
02What is the TPL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TPL is $639 based on 5 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $639 (+52.2% from today), and the low-end target is $639 (+52.2%). The base case model target is $460.
03Is Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) stock overvalued in 2026?
TPL trades at 43.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TPL in 2026 are: (1) Energy sector volatility — Texas Pacific Land Corp. (2) Stock volatility — The company’s shares have shown pronounced market swings, with a decline of more than 15% in early April 2026. (3) Valuation concerns — TPL’s current P/E, P/S, and P/B ratios are markedly higher than both its historical averages and sector peers, suggesting the stock may be overvalued. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Texas Pacific Land Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TPL will report consensus revenue of $896M (+16.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.79 (-1.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.0B in revenue.
06When does Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) report its next earnings?
Texas Pacific Land Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $2.03 and revenue of $242M. Over recent quarters, TPL has beaten EPS estimates 33% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Texas Pacific Land Corporation generate?
Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) generated $493M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 58.8%. TPL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.5% yield) and share repurchases ($23M TTM).