Upside case
Bull case
$279-21.4%
The bull case prices TPL at 30x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
5
analysts
3 bullish · 1 bearish · 5 covering TPL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
3
Hold
1
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$639
+79.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$133 – $279
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
5
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
38.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $24.5B
TPL price targets
Three scenarios for where TPL stock could go
Current
~$355
Confidence
37 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $355
Bear
$133
Base
$212
Bull
$279
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$212-40.3%
At 23x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$133-62.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 24x multiple contraction could push TPL down roughly 62% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Texas Pacific Land Corporation
TPL · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionDecember year-end
Texas Pacific Land Corporation is a unique land and resource management company that owns vast surface and mineral rights in the Permian Basin. It generates revenue primarily through oil and gas royalties (roughly 80% of income), water services operations, and land use fees from easements, commercial leases, and material sales. Its key competitive advantage is its massive, irreplaceable land position — approximately 880,000 acres in the heart of the Permian Basin — which provides a perpetual royalty stream without capital expenditure risk.
Market Cap
$24.5B
Revenue TTM
$839M
Net Income TTM
$504M
Net Margin
60.0%
TPL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+0.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.68/$1.83
Revenue
$188M/$198M
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.76/$1.92
Revenue
$203M/$175M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.79/$1.79
Revenue
$212M/$208M
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.07/$2.02
Revenue
$237M/$233M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.68/$1.83 | -8.0% | $188M/$198M | -5.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.76/$1.92 | -8.5% | $203M/$175M | +16.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.79/$1.79 | +0.0% | $212M/$208M | +2.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.07/$2.02 | +2.5% | $237M/$233M | +1.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$934M
+11.3% YoY
FY2
$1.0B
+9.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.34
-40.6% YoY
FY2
$4.71
+8.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$493M
FCF Margin: 58.8%
Next Earnings
August 5, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.28
Expected Revenue
$256M
TPL beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
TPL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $798M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Oil And Gas Royalties
51.6%
+10.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Oil And Gas Royalties is the largest disclosed segment at 51.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 10.3% YoY.
TPL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Limited: Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $119 — implies -66.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
66.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TPL
50.9x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+108% premium
vs Energy Trailing P/E
TPL
50.9x
vs
Energy
15.5x
+230% premium
vs TPL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
50.9x
vs
5Y Average
105.6x
52% discount
Forward PE
38.7x
S&P 500
18.8x
+106%
Energy
12.5x
+211%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
50.9x
S&P 500
24.4x
+108%
Energy
15.5x
+230%
5Y Avg
105.6x
-52%
PEG Ratio
2.26x
S&P 500
1.66x
+36%
Energy
0.52x
+337%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
37.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
+145%
Energy
7.8x
+375%
5Y Avg
67.5x
-45%
Price/FCF
50.4x
S&P 500
20.7x
+143%
Energy
13.8x
+265%
5Y Avg
107.9x
-53%
Price/Sales
30.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+893%
Energy
1.4x
+2067%
5Y Avg
24.8x
+24%
Dividend Yield
0.60%
S&P 500
1.91%
-68%
Energy
3.47%
-83%
5Y Avg
0.44%
+36%
| Metric | TPL | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg TPL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 38.7x | 18.8x+106% | 12.5x+211% | — |
| Trailing PE | 50.9x | 24.4x+108% | 15.5x+230% | 105.6x-52% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.26x | 1.66x+36% | 0.52x+337% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 37.2x | 15.2x+145% | 7.8x+375% | 67.5x-45% |
| Price/FCF | 50.4x | 20.7x+143% | 13.8x+265% | 107.9x-53% |
| Price/Sales | 30.7x | 3.1x+893% | 1.4x+2067% | 24.8x+24% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.60% | 1.91% | 3.47% | 0.44% |
TPL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTPL Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
TPL generates $493M in free cash flow at a 58.8% margin — 42.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$839M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+15.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
97.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
74.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
60.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$7.30
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$493M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
58.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
42.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
32.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$145M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$112M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
35.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.7%
Dividend
0.6%
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$23M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.14
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
30.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
69M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTPL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Earnings miss
TPL's Q3 2025 earnings miss and potential slowdown in Permian royalty revenues have contributed to a 30% stock decline over the past year.
High Risk
Commodity price risk
Sustained oil and gas prices below $80-100 per barrel could negatively impact royalty revenues from TPL's Permian Basin acreage.
Medium
Permian Basin dynamics
Changes in Permian Basin activity levels and midstream demand for produced water could affect TPL's royalty-driven business model.
Medium
Industry transformation
The Permian Basin's shift toward data-driven operations may disrupt traditional land royalty models that TPL relies on.
Lower
Margin sustainability
While consensus expects 2026 EPS growth, TPL's margins remain dependent on commodity price stabilization.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TPL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong financial performance
Texas Pacific Land Corporation reported higher first-quarter revenue of US$236.82 million and net income of US$142.9 million, affirming a US$0.60 quarterly dividend.
Strategic acreage acquisitions
The company has made strategic acquisitions in the Permian Basin, enhancing its land and royalty portfolio.
High operating margins
TPL boasts 74% operating margins, indicating efficient management and strong profitability.
Exceptional return on capital
The company achieves a return on invested capital exceeding 33%, showcasing its ability to generate significant returns.
Irreplaceable land portfolio
TPL owns an irreplaceable 882,000-acre Permian Basin land and royalty portfolio, providing a competitive edge.
Zero debt
The company operates with zero debt, reducing financial risk and enhancing stability.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TPL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$355.11
52W Range Position
9%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$280.95
+26.4% from the low
52-Week High
$1099.00
-67.7% from the high
1 Month
-8.15%
3 Month
-33.01%
YTD
+19.2%
1 Year
-67.1%
3Y CAGR
-7.1%
5Y CAGR
-6.8%
10Y CAGR
+20.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TPL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
38.7x
vs 18.1x median
+114% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+11.3%
vs +3.7% median
+206% above peer median
Net Margin
60.0%
vs 40.8% median
+47% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TPL TPL Texas Pacific Land Corporation | $24.5B | 38.7x | +11.3% | 60.0% | Buy | +79.9% |
VNO VNOM Viper Energy, Inc. | $15.5B | 16.4x | +16.4% | -2.9% | Buy | +31.7% |
DML DMLP Dorchester Minerals, L.P. | $1.2B | — | +3.7% | 40.8% | — | — |
BSM BSM Black Stone Minerals, L.P. | $3.0B | 19.7x | 0.0% | 63.5% | Buy | +14.2% |
NRP NRP Natural Resource Partners L.P. | $1.3B | 21.3x | +3.5% | 51.6% | Hold | — |
FAN FANG Diamondback Energy, Inc. | $51.6B | 9.0x | +12.8% | 2.7% | Buy | +19.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TPL Dividend and Capital Return
TPL returns 0.7% total yield, led by a 0.60% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
0.60%
Payout Ratio
30.7%
How TPL Splits Its Return
Div 0.60%
Dividend 0.60%Buybacks 0.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.14
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
-15.7%
5Y Div CAGR
-28.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$23M
Estimated Shares Retired
65.3K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
69M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.20 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.13 | -73.8% | 0.1% | 0.9% |
| 2024 | $8.15 | +464.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 2023 | $1.44 | -59.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| 2022 | $3.56 | +190.9% | 0.2% | 0.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsTPL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 5 analysts covering the stock, 3 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 1 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $639, implying +79.9% from the current price of $355. The bear case scenario is $133 and the bull case is $279.
02What is the TPL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TPL is $639 based on 5 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $639 (+79.9% from today), and the low-end target is $639 (+79.9%). The base case model target is $212.
03Is Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) stock overvalued in 2026?
TPL trades at 38.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals limited: expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TPL in 2026 are: (1) Earnings miss — TPL's Q3 2025 earnings miss and potential slowdown in Permian royalty revenues have contributed to a 30% stock decline over the past year. (2) Commodity price risk — Sustained oil and gas prices below $80-100 per barrel could negatively impact royalty revenues from TPL's Permian Basin acreage. (3) Permian Basin dynamics — Changes in Permian Basin activity levels and midstream demand for produced water could affect TPL's royalty-driven business model. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Texas Pacific Land Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TPL will report consensus revenue of $934M (+11.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.34 (-40.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.0B in revenue.
06When does Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) report its next earnings?
Texas Pacific Land Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-05. Consensus expects EPS of $2.28 and revenue of $256M. Over recent quarters, TPL has beaten EPS estimates 42% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Texas Pacific Land Corporation generate?
Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) generated $493M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 58.8%. TPL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.6% yield) and share repurchases ($23M TTM).