Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing VOD more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Vodafone Group Public Limited Company (VOD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
25
analysts
13 bullish · 5 bearish · 25 covering VOD
Strong Buy
0
Buy
13
Hold
7
Sell
5
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$12
-28.2% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
25
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
17.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $37.6B
VOD price targets
Three scenarios for where VOD stock could go
Current
~$16
Confidence
25 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Vodafone Group Public Limited Company
VOD · NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesMarch year-end
Vodafone is a multinational telecommunications company providing mobile, fixed-line, and converged connectivity services across Europe and Africa. It generates revenue primarily from mobile services (~60% of service revenue), fixed broadband and TV, and its African mobile money platform M-Pesa — which has become a significant growth driver. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive European network infrastructure and its entrenched position in African markets where M-Pesa has created a powerful financial services ecosystem.
Market Cap
$37.6B
Revenue TTM
$74.2B
Net Income TTM
-$3.0B
Net Margin
-4.1%
VOD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
0%Mixed
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
64%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-99.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q1 2024
Q3 2024
Q4 2024
Q2 2025
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 0 of 4Q1 2024
EPS
$-0.01/$0.35
Revenue
$23.1B/$22.9B
Q3 2024
EPS
$0.06/$0.54
Revenue
$15.9B/$23.6B
Q4 2024
EPS
$0.04/$0.22
Revenue
$20.0B/$20.1B
Q2 2025
EPS
$-0.22/$0.23
Revenue
$21.0B/$22.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2024 | $-0.01/$0.35 | -103.8% | $23.1B/$22.9B | +1.0% |
| Q3 2024 | $0.06/$0.54 | -89.1% | $15.9B/$23.6B | -32.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.04/$0.22 | -79.9% | $20.0B/$20.1B | -0.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $-0.22/$0.23 | -199.4% | $21.0B/$22.1B | -4.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$69.5B
-6.3% YoY
FY2
$70.1B
+1.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-0.65
+45.5% YoY
FY2
$-0.46
+29.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$21.9B
FCF Margin: 29.6%
Next Earnings
May 12, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.32
Expected Revenue
$12.3B
VOD beat EPS estimates in 0 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
VOD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $22 — implies +34.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
34.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
VOD
-8.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
134% discount
vs Communication Services Trailing P/E
VOD
-8.6x
vs
Communication Services
15.5x
155% discount
vs VOD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-8.6x
vs
5Y Average
15.1x
157% discount
Forward PE
17.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
-6%
Communication Services
13.1x
+37%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-8.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
-134%
Communication Services
15.5x
-155%
5Y Avg
15.1x
-157%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Communication Services
0.66x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
7.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
-51%
Communication Services
8.7x
-14%
5Y Avg
5.6x
+32%
Price/FCF
3.7x
S&P 500
21.3x
-83%
Communication Services
11.6x
-68%
5Y Avg
3.4x
+9%
Price/Sales
0.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-73%
Communication Services
1.0x
-19%
5Y Avg
0.9x
+0%
Dividend Yield
4.96%
S&P 500
1.88%
+164%
Communication Services
3.38%
+47%
5Y Avg
7.37%
-33%
| Metric | VOD | S&P 500 | Communication Services | 5Y Avg VOD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 17.9x | 19.1x | 13.1x+37% | — |
| Trailing PE | -8.6x | 25.2x-134% | 15.5x-155% | 15.1x-157% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.66x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5x | 15.3x-51% | 8.7x-14% | 5.6x+32% |
| Price/FCF | 3.7x | 21.3x-83% | 11.6x-68% | 3.4x |
| Price/Sales | 0.9x | 3.1x-73% | 1.0x-19% | 0.9x |
| Dividend Yield | 4.96% | 1.88% | 3.38% | 7.37% |
VOD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolVOD Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
VOD earns 4.4% operating margin on regulated earnings, 5.0% dividend yield. Utilities carry higher leverage than industrials as a structural feature of the business model.
Regulated Operations
Revenue, regulated margins, and earnings
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$74.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-18.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
4.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-4.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-1.18
Operating Margin
Operating income over revenue — primary regulated earnings signal
4.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-0.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-2.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$11.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$45.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.1× FCF
Regulated utilities typically operate at 3–5× net debt/FCF — this is structural, not a risk flag.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-5.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
10.8%
Dividend
5.0%
Buyback
5.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.9B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.68
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
2.6B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. Utilities operate with structural leverage (3–5× net debt/FCF) due to regulated, predictable cash flows.
Open full ratios pageVOD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Financial Risks
Vodafone’s balance sheet shows a net debt of €49.7 billion, exceeding its cash and near‑term receivables. The company reported a substantial negative free cash flow in the first half of FY2026, raising doubts about the sustainability of its dividend policy, which has been supported by proceeds from asset sales.
High Risk
Competition & Margin Pressure
In highly price‑sensitive European markets, Vodafone faces intense competition that erodes profit margins. In Germany, underlying service revenues are declining and growth is largely tied to temporary wholesale revenue from 1&1, while aggressive pricing from low‑value players and new entrants could increase customer churn.
Medium
Operational & Technological Risks
Vodafone’s German fiber rollout faces stiff competition and high costs from the OXG fiber joint venture. Reliance on wholesale mobile agreements, potential loss of tower asset revenues, and the risk of IT system disruptions or failure to innovate could negatively impact operations and market share.
Medium
Macroeconomic & Political Instability
Economic contractions, high inflation, and adverse currency exchange rates can reduce customer spending and strain Vodafone’s ability to refinance debt. Geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in global trade policies may also trigger government intervention that affects economic activity.
Medium
Regulatory & Policy Environment
Unfavorable political and regulatory measures, including protectionist behaviors and geographically diverse regulations, can increase operating costs, create competitive disadvantages, and negatively impact Vodafone’s return on capital employed.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why VOD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Analyst Upgrades and Buy Ratings
Berenberg and Barclays have upgraded Vodafone to "Buy" or "Overweight" status, signaling renewed confidence in the company’s prospects. These upgrades come after a series of positive earnings releases and strategic initiatives that have bolstered investor sentiment.
Robust Q2 Financial Performance
Vodafone reported a 9.2% increase in adjusted EBITDA and an 11% rise in revenue in Q2, prompting a lift in full‑year guidance. The company is on track to hit the upper end of its FY26 Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow targets.
Three UK Merger Unlocks Cost Savings
The completed merger with Three UK is expected to create the UK’s largest mobile operator and unlock £700 million in annual cost savings. This consolidation enhances scale and operational efficiency across the UK market.
Share Repurchase Momentum
Vodafone has already repurchased €3.5 billion of shares, underscoring management’s commitment to returning capital to shareholders. The buyback program supports the stock price and signals confidence in the company’s cash‑flow generation.
Dividend Growth Outlook
Vodafone’s FY26 dividend per share is projected to grow 2.5%, building on the current $0.50 annual dividend that yields 3.17%. Sustained free‑cash‑flow growth positions the company to increase shareholder payouts over time.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
VOD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$16.13
52W Range Position
99%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$8.98
+79.6% from the low
52-Week High
$16.22
-0.6% from the high
1 Month
+6.54%
3 Month
+6.75%
YTD
+20.9%
1 Year
+66.8%
3Y CAGR
+10.5%
5Y CAGR
-4.2%
10Y CAGR
-6.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
VOD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
17.9x
vs 11.1x median
+62% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-6.3%
vs +2.6% median
-346% below peer median
Net Margin
-4.1%
vs 12.4% median
-133% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VOD VOD Vodafone Group Public Limited Company | $37.6B | 17.9x | -6.3% | -4.1% | Buy | -28.2% |
T T AT&T Inc. | $178.4B | 11.1x | +1.4% | 16.9% | Hold | +15.1% |
VZ VZ Verizon Communications Inc. | $200.1B | 9.6x | +2.6% | 12.4% | Hold | +8.7% |
TMU TMUS T-Mobile US, Inc. | $209.0B | 18.4x | +5.2% | 11.6% | Buy | +31.5% |
BCE BCE BCE Inc. | $22.6B | 9.3x | +1.9% | 25.8% | Hold | +7.3% |
TU TU TELUS Corporation | $20.0B | 19.5x | +3.7% | 5.4% | Buy | +76.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
VOD Dividend and Capital Return
VOD returns 10.8% annually — 4.96% through dividends and 5.8% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
10.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
5.8%
Dividend Yield
4.96%
Payout Ratio
—
How VOD Splits Its Return
Div 4.96%
Buyback 5.8%
Dividend 4.96%Buybacks 5.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.68
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-17.2%
5Y Div CAGR
-12.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.9B
Estimated Shares Retired
116M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.6B
At 4.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $0.53 | -25.2% | 7.6% | 14.9% |
| 2024 | $0.71 | -26.6% | 0.0% | 10.1% |
| 2023 | $0.97 | +3.4% | 6.1% | 14.2% |
| 2022 | $0.94 | -11.8% | 5.1% | 11.2% |
| 2021 | $1.06 | +4.3% | 0.1% | 5.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsVOD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Vodafone Group Public Limited Company (VOD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Vodafone Group Public Limited Company (VOD) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 25 analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 5 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $12, implying -28.2% from the current price of $16.
02What is the VOD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for VOD is $12 based on 25 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $12 (-28.2% from today), and the low-end target is $12 (-28.2%).
03Is Vodafone Group Public Limited Company (VOD) stock overvalued in 2026?
VOD trades at 17.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Vodafone Group Public Limited Company (VOD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for VOD in 2026 are: (1) Financial Risks — Vodafone’s balance sheet shows a net debt of €49. (2) Competition & Margin Pressure — In highly price‑sensitive European markets, Vodafone faces intense competition that erodes profit margins. (3) Operational & Technological Risks — Vodafone’s German fiber rollout faces stiff competition and high costs from the OXG fiber joint venture. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Vodafone Group Public Limited Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates VOD will report consensus revenue of $69.5B (-6.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $-0.65 (+45.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $70.1B in revenue.
06When does Vodafone Group Public Limited Company (VOD) report its next earnings?
Vodafone Group Public Limited Company is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-12. Consensus expects EPS of $0.32 and revenue of $12.3B. Over recent quarters, VOD has beaten EPS estimates 0% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Vodafone Group Public Limited Company generate?
Vodafone Group Public Limited Company (VOD) generated $21.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 29.6%. VOD returns capital to shareholders through dividends (5.0% yield) and share repurchases ($1.9B TTM).