Upside case
Bull case
$425+55.4%
WAB would need investors to value it at roughly 40x earnings — about 14x more generous than today's 26x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation (WAB) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
34
analysts
21 bullish · 1 bearish · 34 covering WAB
Strong Buy
0
Buy
21
Hold
12
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$305
+11.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$203 – $425
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
34
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
25.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $46.5B
WAB price targets
Three scenarios for where WAB stock could go
Current
~$274
Confidence
45 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $274
Bear
$203
Base
$323
Bull
$425
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$323+17.9%
At 30x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$203-25.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push WAB down roughly 26% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation
WAB · NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsDecember year-end
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies is a leading provider of technology-based equipment, systems, and services for the global freight rail and passenger transit industries. It generates revenue primarily through two segments: Freight (roughly 70% of sales) supplying components for locomotives and freight cars, and Transit (roughly 30%) providing equipment for passenger vehicles like trains and buses. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep industry expertise, long-standing customer relationships, and comprehensive portfolio of mission-critical rail technologies that create high switching costs.
Market Cap
$46.5B
Revenue TTM
$11.5B
Net Income TTM
$1.2B
Net Margin
10.5%
WAB Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.96/$2.17
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.32/$2.28
Revenue
$2.9B/$2.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.10/$2.08
Revenue
$3.0B/$2.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.71/$2.51
Revenue
$3.0B/$3.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.96/$2.17 | -9.7% | $2.7B/$2.8B | -2.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.32/$2.28 | +1.8% | $2.9B/$2.9B | +0.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.10/$2.08 | +1.0% | $3.0B/$2.9B | +3.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.71/$2.51 | +8.0% | $3.0B/$3.0B | -0.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$12.6B
+9.3% YoY
FY2
$13.4B
+6.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.86
+10.8% YoY
FY2
$8.32
+5.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.6B
FCF Margin: 14.3%
Next Earnings
July 23, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.63
Expected Revenue
$3.1B
WAB beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
WAB Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $11.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Freight Segment
72.0%
+7.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
49.5%
+9.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Freight Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 72.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 7.6% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 49.5%, up 9.0% YoY.
WAB Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $197 — implies -28.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
28.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
WAB
40.1x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+64% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
WAB
40.1x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+57% premium
vs WAB 5Y Avg P/E
Today
40.1x
vs
5Y Average
30.1x
+33% premium
Forward PE
25.8x
S&P 500
18.8x
+37%
Industrials
21.2x
+22%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
40.1x
S&P 500
24.4x
+64%
Industrials
25.6x
+57%
5Y Avg
30.1x
+33%
PEG Ratio
1.56x
S&P 500
1.66x
-6%
Industrials
1.65x
-6%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
21.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
+42%
Industrials
13.9x
+56%
5Y Avg
16.2x
+33%
Price/FCF
31.0x
S&P 500
20.7x
+50%
Industrials
20.0x
+55%
5Y Avg
21.2x
+46%
Price/Sales
4.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+35%
Industrials
1.6x
+166%
5Y Avg
2.6x
+57%
Dividend Yield
0.37%
S&P 500
1.91%
-81%
Industrials
1.21%
-70%
5Y Avg
0.52%
-28%
| Metric | WAB | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg WAB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 25.8x | 18.8x+37% | 21.2x+22% | — |
| Trailing PE | 40.1x | 24.4x+64% | 25.6x+57% | 30.1x+33% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.56x | 1.66x | 1.65x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.6x | 15.2x+42% | 13.9x+56% | 16.2x+33% |
| Price/FCF | 31.0x | 20.7x+50% | 20.0x+55% | 21.2x+46% |
| Price/Sales | 4.2x | 3.1x+35% | 1.6x+166% | 2.6x+57% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.37% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 0.52% |
WAB trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolWAB Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
WAB generates $1.6B in free cash flow at a 14.3% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$11.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
33.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
16.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
10.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$7.09
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
14.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$789M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.9× FCF
~2.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
10.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.8%
Dividend
0.4%
Buyback
0.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$223M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.01
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
14.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
170M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageWAB Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Customer concentration
Wabtec's 2026 10-K highlights risks around heavy reliance on a limited number of customers, which could impact revenue stability.
High Risk
Backlog volatility
The company faces risks related to fluctuations in its order backlog, which could affect future revenue streams.
High Risk
AI-driven tech disruption
Emerging AI technologies could disrupt Wabtec's traditional rail and air brake systems, posing a competitive threat.
High Risk
Supply chain fragility
Wabtec's operations are vulnerable to supply chain disruptions, which could delay production and increase costs.
Medium
M&A execution risk
The company's growth through acquisitions carries integration and execution risks that could hinder performance.
Medium
Rising leverage and covenants
Increasing debt levels and financial covenants could constrain Wabtec's financial flexibility.
Medium
Trade and climate regulation
Changes in trade policies and climate-related regulations could impose additional compliance costs on Wabtec.
Medium
ESG scrutiny
Growing environmental, social, and governance (ESG) scrutiny could pressure Wabtec to adapt its operations, potentially increasing costs.
Medium
Cybersecurity threats
Wabtec faces risks from potential cybersecurity breaches that could disrupt operations and damage its reputation.
Lower
Labor constraints
Labor shortages or disputes could impact Wabtec's ability to meet production and service demands.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why WAB Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Recurring aftermarket revenues
WAB benefits from durable aftermarket revenue streams, which provide stability and long-term growth potential.
Stronger-than-expected earnings
Recent earnings outperformance was driven by higher sales, margin expansion, and operational contributions.
Dividend declaration
The board declared a quarterly dividend, reflecting confidence in financial health and shareholder returns.
Efficiency program execution
Successful execution on efficiency programs could drive a re-rating toward the upper analyst range.
Higher-margin services growth
Growth in higher-margin aftermarket services is a key bullish driver for WAB's profitability.
Macro stability support
A stable macroeconomic environment could lead to pronounced multiple expansion for WAB.
Institutional ownership
Top holder Berkshire Hathaway's significant stake (26%) signals strong institutional confidence.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
WAB Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$273.83
52W Range Position
95%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$184.26
+48.6% from the low
52-Week High
$278.39
-1.6% from the high
1 Month
+5.25%
3 Month
+15.16%
YTD
+26.6%
1 Year
+36.4%
3Y CAGR
+39.0%
5Y CAGR
+28.7%
10Y CAGR
+14.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
WAB vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
25.8x
vs 28.8x median
-10% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.3%
vs +8.4% median
+11% above peer median
Net Margin
10.5%
vs 10.8% median
-3% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WAB WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | $46.5B | 25.8x | +9.3% | 10.5% | Buy | +11.4% |
TT TT Trane Technologies plc | $107.0B | 32.4x | +8.0% | 13.4% | Hold | +8.6% |
ITT ITT ITT Inc. | $17.6B | 25.1x | +10.0% | 10.8% | Buy | +23.6% |
RXO RXO RXO, Inc. | $4.2B | 568.0x | +8.3% | -1.8% | Hold | -19.7% |
GNS GNSS Genasys Inc. | $74M | — | +114.0% | -13.4% | — | — |
ALS ALSN Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | $9.9B | 13.4x | +8.4% | 14.9% | Hold | -0.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
WAB Dividend and Capital Return
WAB returns 0.8% annually — 0.37% through dividends and 0.5% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.5%
Dividend Yield
0.37%
Payout Ratio
14.8%
How WAB Splits Its Return
Div 0.37%
Buyback 0.5%
Dividend 0.37%Buybacks 0.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.01
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
18.6%
5Y Div CAGR
15.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$223M
Estimated Shares Retired
814.4K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
170M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.62 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.00 | +25.0% | 0.6% | 1.1% |
| 2024 | $0.80 | +17.6% | 3.3% | 3.7% |
| 2023 | $0.68 | +13.3% | 1.8% | 2.3% |
| 2022 | $0.60 | +25.0% | 2.6% | 3.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsWAB Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation (WAB) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation (WAB) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 34 analysts covering the stock, 21 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $305, implying +11.4% from the current price of $274. The bear case scenario is $203 and the bull case is $425.
02What is the WAB stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for WAB is $305 based on 34 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $318 (+16.1% from today), and the low-end target is $291 (+6.3%). The base case model target is $323.
03Is Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation (WAB) stock overvalued in 2026?
WAB trades at 25.8x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation (WAB) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for WAB in 2026 are: (1) Customer concentration — Wabtec's 2026 10-K highlights risks around heavy reliance on a limited number of customers, which could impact revenue stability. (2) Backlog volatility — The company faces risks related to fluctuations in its order backlog, which could affect future revenue streams. (3) AI-driven tech disruption — Emerging AI technologies could disrupt Wabtec's traditional rail and air brake systems, posing a competitive threat. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates WAB will report consensus revenue of $12.6B (+9.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.86 (+10.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $13.4B in revenue.
06When does Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation (WAB) report its next earnings?
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-23. Consensus expects EPS of $2.63 and revenue of $3.1B. Over recent quarters, WAB has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation generate?
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation (WAB) generated $1.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 14.3%. WAB returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.4% yield) and share repurchases ($223M TTM).