Ascentage Pharma Group International (AAPG)
Valuation Overview•Is Ascentage Pharma Group International Overvalued or Undervalued?
Market price has outpaced base-case intrinsic cash flows, pricing in significant future growth optimism.
Fragile underlying quality score of 38/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Mixed fundamental profile with offsetting strengths and weaknesses.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
AAPG struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($491M) and minimal debt risk.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (38.6% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-101.6%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $334.1M | -43.1% | +38.6% | +114.0% | — | |
| EBITDA | -$599.0M | — | -10.9% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$640.0M | -198.2% | -11.0% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-6.92 | -153.0% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$787.4M | -785.9% | -10.5% | -6.9% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 92.3% | 86.6% | 87.5% | 90.4% |
| Operating Margin | -101.6% | -214.0% | -832.7% | -2214.6% |
| Net Margin | -105.7% | -224.9% | -779.8% | -2789.7% |
| FCF Margin | -88.8% | -193.9% | -947.5% | -2228.1% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26Latest | $-0.83 | $-0.65 | +21.7% | ||
| Q3'25 | — | $-0.96 | — | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.02 | $-1.00 | -6134.6% | ||
| Q4'24 | — | $-0.25 | — | ||
| Q3'24 | — | $0.31 | — | ||
| Q2'24 | — | $0.30 | — | ||
| Q4'23 | — | $-1.02 | — | ||
| Q3'23 | — | $-0.81 | — |
Total return is -57.0% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -77.8%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -35.2% | -42.6% | — |
| 1Y | -57.0% | -77.8% | — |
| 3YCAGR | -0.6% | -20.1% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -0.3% | -11.9% | — |
| 10YCAGR | -0.2% | -13.9% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Ascentage Pharma Group International (AAPG) valuation, health, and returns.
Ascentage Pharma Group International is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. overvalued (implying -57.4% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $7.15)
Ascentage Pharma Group International has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $7.15 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $40.00 (implying +138.5% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Ascentage Pharma Group International displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 38/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of -0.1 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -114.1%.
Ascentage Pharma Group International does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
Ascentage Pharma Group International's current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved -43.1% 1Y revenue growth and -153.0% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +38.6%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 1 analysts. The consensus price target represents a +138.5% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Ascentage Pharma Group International include: -65.0% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.96x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.