Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$123.78
→
Intrinsic$159.12
+29%
$105.61$159.12$236.15
MRK shows 29% potential upside using 21% growth — reasonable if fundamentals hold.
Range: Bear $106 → Bull $236. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
Bull Case
- Bull case ($236) offers 91% upside at 25% growth, 8% discount
- 22% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
Bear Case
- Bear case ($106) implies 15% downside at 17% growth, 12% discount
- Using 21% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate21.2%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$0.00TTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.