MODEL VERDICT
ACI Worldwide, Inc. (ACIW) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $39.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $40.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $39.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $42.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $46.77 | Pending | -10.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $39.92 | +0.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 55 industry peers | $62.38 | +57.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 45 industry peers | $49.62 | +25.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $44.35 | +11.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $51.36 | +29.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $41.52 | +4.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 25 industry peers | $84.93 | +114.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $48.56 | +22.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $48.64 | +22.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 50 industry peers | $55.88 | +40.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $46.02 | +16.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $53.70 | +35.3% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (11%) | $34 | $38 | $43 | $48 | $53 |
| Conservative (18%) | $36 | $41 | $46 | $51 | $56 |
| Base Case (28.4%) | $39 | $44 | $50 | $55 | $61 |
| Bull Case (38%) | $42 | $48 | $54 | $60 | $66 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 36.54 | 27.32 | 18.55 | 66.46 | 19.43 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.66 | 21.33 | 14.00 | 42.61 | 11.15 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.02 | 14.46 | 10.63 | 22.14 | 3.92 |
| P/FCF | 25.06 | 23.51 | 15.67 | 53.10 | 13.14 |
| P/FFO | 15.88 | 15.49 | 9.37 | 21.85 | 4.07 |
| P/AFFO | 17.47 | 16.39 | 9.82 | 24.62 | 5.32 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.28 | 3.31 | 2.20 | 3.98 | 0.69 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.93 | 3.00 | 1.85 | 3.57 | 0.66 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ACIW's fair value at $53.70 vs the current price of $39.68, implying +35.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $53.70 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $43.78 (P10) to $64.13 (P90), with a median of $53.72.
ACIW's current P/E of 18.4x compares to the industry median of 23.0x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -20.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 36.5x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
17 analysts cover ACIW with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $70.00 (range: $70.00 — $70.00), implying +76.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (5), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 12.9% is 3.7 percentage points above the 7-year average (9.2%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$56. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ACIW's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4200.0% to approximately $56. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.