Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$39.68
→
Intrinsic$98.36
+148%
$65.01$98.36$161.64
Market implies 4% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests ACIW could have 148% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $40, the market prices in only 4% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $65 → Bull $162. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $122 | $133 | $144 | $156 |
| 10% | $84 | $91 | $98 | $106 |
| 12% | $62 | $68 | $73 | $79 |
| 14% | $49 | $53 | $57 | $62 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($162) offers 307% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (4%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($65) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$387.40M
Year 2$484.26M
Year 3$605.32M
Year 4$756.65M
Year 5$945.81M
Terminal$13.92B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$309.92MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.