MODEL VERDICT
American Financial Group, Inc. (AFGC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $18.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $18.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $18.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $18.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $18.72 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $114.45 | +509.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $92.76 | +394.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $119.06 | +534.3% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $129.01 | +587.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $114.43 | +509.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $87.26 | +364.9% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $157.02 | +736.5% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $190.21 | +913.4% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $87.52 | +366.3% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 4× | 6× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $43 | $43 | $43 | $43 | $65 |
| Conservative (5%) | $44 | $44 | $44 | $44 | $67 |
| Base Case (1.4%) | $43 | $43 | $43 | $43 | $64 |
| Bull Case (2%) | $43 | $43 | $43 | $43 | $65 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 2.43 | 2.19 | 1.89 | 3.38 | 0.60 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.84 | 0.45 | 0.22 | 1.87 | 0.77 |
| P/FCF | 1.33 | 1.29 | 0.99 | 1.65 | 0.28 |
| P/FFO | 1.95 | 1.76 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 0.38 |
| P/TBV | 0.48 | 0.51 | 0.39 | 0.54 | 0.06 |
| P/AFFO | 2.10 | 2.01 | 1.60 | 2.55 | 0.38 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.42 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.47 | 0.04 |
| Div Yield | 0.31 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 1.01 | 0.36 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.31 | 0.29 | 0.21 | 0.44 | 0.09 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates AFGC's fair value at $87.52 vs the current price of $18.77, implying +366.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $87.52 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $76.35 (P10) to $96.16 (P90), with a median of $84.74.
AFGC's current P/E of 1.8x compares to the industry median of 10.8x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -83.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 2.4x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for AFGC.
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AFGC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (12.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6740.0% to approximately $31. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.