MODEL VERDICT
Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. (ALGM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $48.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $44.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $40.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $37.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $37.50 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $24.76 | -49.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $10.70 | -78.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $5.00 | -89.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $3.72 | -92.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $35.50 | -27.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $37.25 | -23.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $4.63 | -90.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $15.64 | -68.1% | 100% | 61 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 124.60 | 48.42 | 28.03 | 382.05 | 150.17 |
| EV/EBIT | 598.19 | 38.52 | 21.01 | 2813.25 | 1238.58 |
| EV/EBITDA | 56.13 | 35.95 | 16.14 | 116.31 | 45.28 |
| P/FCF | 107.61 | 80.29 | 51.69 | 225.51 | 65.37 |
| P/FFO | 46.28 | 34.29 | 18.99 | 103.52 | 34.09 |
| P/TBV | 8.90 | 8.36 | 6.52 | 12.93 | 2.48 |
| P/AFFO | 99.57 | 58.76 | 37.02 | 268.08 | 96.52 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.10 | 6.95 | 3.76 | 11.69 | 2.75 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.29 | 7.16 | 4.06 | 11.60 | 2.50 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates ALGM's fair value at $15.64 vs the current price of $48.98, implying -68.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 61/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $15.64 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $21.36 (P10) to $32.12 (P90), with a median of $26.67.
ALGM's current P/E of -125.6x compares to the industry median of 69.2x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -281.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 124.6x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover ALGM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $44.83 (range: $38.00 — $51.00), implying -8.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 61/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ALGM.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.