Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS)
Estimates & Forecasts•Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
Popular:
ALRS Price Targets Summary| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $12M | $18M | $17M | $33M | $32M | $22M | $22M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.58 | $0.83 | $0.68 | $1.18 | $1.04 | $0.64 | $0.58 |
| YoY Growth | — | +52.0% | -1.9% | +90.8% | -3.5% | -31.7% | -1.1% |
| Net Margin | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% |
USD · ALRS · Proprietary Model| Metric | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $328M | $318M | $311M | $313M | $319M |
| Net Income | $17M | $33M | $32M | $22M | $22M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.68 | $1.18 | $1.04 | $0.64 | $0.58 |
| Free Cash Flow | $59M | $49M | $45M | $44M | $43M |
Treat point estimates cautiously; use wider scenario ranges and position sizing discipline.
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying ALRS stock.
Alerus Financial Corporation's projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $1.18. This estimate blends our quantitative model with Wall Street analyst consensus and carries a confidence score of 41/100. The model factors in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends to arrive at this figure.
Our scenario-based model produces three price targets for Alerus Financial Corporation: Bear case $21, Base case $46, and Bull case $129. These targets are derived by applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under each growth scenario. They are not buy/sell recommendations.
Alerus Financial Corporation's projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is -3.7%, reaching approximately $0.3B in total revenue. Growth estimates are probability-weighted and blend analyst consensus with our CAGR extrapolation model. Outer years (FY+3, FY+4) fade toward industry median growth rates.
Accuracy depends on several measurable factors. Our model confidence score of 41/100 is computed from revenue predictability (25% weight), margin stability (20%), historical earnings beat rate (20%), data depth (15%), analyst coverage (10%), and model-consensus agreement (10%). Contracting margins add uncertainty to forward projections. No forecast model is perfect — always cross-reference with your own analysis.
Alerus Financial Corporation's forward operating margin is estimated at 10.0% for the next fiscal year. The margin trend is currently "contracting". Our model tracks margin mean-reversion patterns and adjusts for sector-specific cost dynamics. Operating leverage is a key driver of EPS growth beyond top-line revenue expansion.
The v2 model uses a multi-step process: (1) Revenue is projected via blended CAGR with probability weighting, (2) Operating and net margins follow a mean-reversion path calibrated to sector norms, (3) EPS is derived from net income divided by projected diluted shares (accounting for buyback trends), (4) For FY+1 and FY+2, estimates are blended with analyst consensus based on coverage depth, (5) Price targets apply median historical P/E to forward EPS under bear/base/bull growth scenarios. All inputs are from public filings and third-party data providers.
The bear case ($21) assumes P25 revenue growth, worst-case margins, and multiple compression. Key risks include: unexpected margin contraction, revenue deceleration below model floor, regulatory headwinds, macro deterioration, or competitive disruption. A confidence score below 60 suggests higher estimate volatility. Always size positions according to the full scenario range, not just the base case.
Our model is below Wall Street consensus with a 59.6% gap. For FY+1, analyst estimates blend with our model at 15% analyst weight. By FY+3 and FY+4, estimates are purely model-driven as analyst coverage thins out at longer horizons.