ALRS trades 9.4% below Wall Street's consensus target of $37.00.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes ALRS achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 10.9x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 5 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of November 8, 2026, Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $37.00, based on estimates from 5 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $33.81, this represents a potential upside of +9.4%. The company has a market capitalization of $850M.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $36.00 to a high of $38.00, representing a 5% spread in expectations. The median target of $37.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 2 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,3 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The mixed ratings reflect uncertainty about near-term direction.
From a valuation perspective, ALRS trades at a trailing P/E of 28.4x and forward P/E of 10.9x. Analysts expect EPS to grow +184.7% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $25.34, with bear and bull scenarios of $15.96 and $33.39 respectively. Model confidence stands at 47/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 NBTBNBT Bancorp Inc. | $2.7B | $52.83 | $57.67 | +9.2% | Hold | 12.6x | 10 |
 FFINFirst Financial Bankshares, Inc. | $4.4B | $30.41 | $34.33 | +12.9% | Hold | 14.9x | 17 |
 BANFBancFirst Corporation | $3.9B | $115.20 | $125.00 | +8.5% | Hold | 15.0x | 3 |
 OTTROtter Tail Corporation | $3.3B | $78.44 | $81.00 | +3.3% | Hold | 12.9x | 7 |
 WSFSWSFS Financial Corporation | $4.1B | $78.94 | $85.00 | +7.7% | Hold | 11.7x | 13 |
 TRMKTrustmark Corporation | $2.6B | $44.64 | $47.50 | +6.4% | Hold | 11.3x | 9 |
 FULTFulton Financial Corporation | $4.5B | $23.76 | $26.00 | +9.4% | Hold | 10.8x | 20 |
 IBCPIndependent Bank Corporation | $748M | $36.31 | $43.00 | +18.4% | Hold | 10.6x | 8 |
 HFWAHeritage Financial Corporation | $1.2B | $28.39 | $32.50 | +14.5% | Buy | 14.5x | 14 |
 FISFidelity National Information Services, Inc. | $14.8B | $28.73 | $42.93 | +49.4% | Hold | 4.6x | 40 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying ALRS stock.
The consensus price target for ALRS is $37, close to the current price of $33.81 (9.4% implied move). Based on 5 analyst estimates, the stock appears fairly valued near current levels.
ALRS has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 5 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 3 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $37 implies 9.4% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 10.8854x, ALRS trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $37 implies 9.4% appreciation, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $38 for ALRS, while the most conservative target is $36. The consensus of $37 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $33 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
ALRS is moderately covered, with 5 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 1 have Strong Buy ratings, 1 have Buy ratings, 3 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month ALRS stock forecast based on 5 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $37, with estimates ranging from $36 (bear case) to $38 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $25, with bear/bull scenarios of $16/$33.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates ALRS's fair value at $25 (base case), with a bear case of $16 and bull case of $33. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 47/100.
ALRS trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10.9x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 28.4x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
ALRS appears fairly valued according to analysts, with a "Hold" rating and minimal upside to the $37 target. Consider your investment thesis and risk tolerance. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
ALRS analyst price targets range from $36 to $38, a 5% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $37 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $16-$33 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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