MODEL VERDICT
Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $30.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $28.95 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $28.58 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $28.05 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $26.55 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $9.84 | -67.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $32.38 | +6.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 9 bank peers | $30.71 | +1.4% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $34.72 | +14.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $9.84 | -67.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $35.30 | +16.5% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $22.83 | -24.7% | 100% | 89 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 37× | 41× | 45× (Current) | 49× | 53× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $26 | $28 | $31 | $34 | $37 |
| Conservative (5%) | $26 | $29 | $32 | $35 | $38 |
| Base Case (-23.0%) | $19 | $21 | $24 | $26 | $28 |
| Bull Case (-31%) | $17 | $19 | $21 | $23 | $25 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.81 | 11.96 | 9.86 | 38.60 | 11.96 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.28 | 15.82 | 4.82 | 44.15 | 17.05 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.17 | 13.66 | 4.27 | 28.73 | 9.69 |
| P/FCF | 13.50 | 13.69 | 3.46 | 24.73 | 8.92 |
| P/FFO | 12.42 | 9.14 | 8.33 | 22.32 | 5.29 |
| P/TBV | 1.48 | 1.49 | 1.15 | 1.75 | 0.21 |
| P/AFFO | 15.19 | 9.74 | 8.56 | 26.48 | 7.53 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.20 | 1.22 | 0.83 | 1.45 | 0.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.81 | 1.85 | 1.21 | 2.17 | 0.31 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates ALRS's fair value at $22.83 vs the current price of $30.30, implying -24.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $22.83 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $20.91 (P10) to $25.33 (P90), with a median of $23.09.
ALRS's current P/E of 44.6x compares to the industry median of 14.5x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +208.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.8x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
5 analysts cover ALRS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $28.75 (range: $28.50 — $29.00), implying -5.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (0), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ALRS trades at the 9790th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (19.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ALRS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3220.0% to approximately $21. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.