MODEL VERDICT
AMN Healthcare Services, Inc. (AMN) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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AMN Healthcare Services, Inc. (AMN)
AMN Healthcare Services, Inc. (AMN) — Relative ValuationPeer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
AMN Healthcare Services, Inc. (AMN)
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $19.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $19.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $16.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $20.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $15.31 | Pending | +30.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 26 analyst estimates | $34.70 | +78.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 22 industry peers | $107.05 | +449.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 23 industry peers | $108.21 | +455.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 31 industry peers | $76.55 | +293.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 31 industry peers | $75.93 | +289.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 23 industry peers | $109.22 | +460.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $66.19 | +239.8% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.31 | 18.72 | 10.39 | 46.11 | 12.80 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.46 | 14.72 | 8.36 | 28.01 | 6.89 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.34 | 13.05 | 6.90 | 28.14 | 7.06 |
| P/FCF | 13.06 | 14.47 | 3.81 | 23.35 | 6.24 |
| P/FFO | 16.51 | 15.07 | 7.93 | 34.08 | 8.92 |
| P/AFFO | 17.03 | 17.19 | 9.13 | 25.88 | 6.41 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.80 | 4.03 | 1.29 | 5.06 | 1.20 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.06 | 1.29 | 0.31 | 1.48 | 0.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates AMN's fair value at $66.19 vs the current price of $19.48, implying +239.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $66.19 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $42.02 (P10) to $59.64 (P90), with a median of $50.75.
AMN's current P/E of -5.1x compares to the industry median of 19.7x (20 peers in the group). This represents a -125.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.3x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
17 analysts cover AMN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $22.88 (range: $19.50 — $25.00), implying +17.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (6), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AMN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.