MODEL VERDICT
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $301.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $301.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $291.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $295.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $298.71 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $229.87 | -23.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $142.71 | -52.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $27.62 | -90.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $79.44 | -73.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $247.66 | -17.7% | 100% | 58 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 28.16 | 30.09 | 16.88 | 33.36 | 5.98 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.00 | 24.09 | 15.21 | 26.97 | 4.24 |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.08 | 18.64 | 12.95 | 104.21 | 32.78 |
| P/FCF | 109.12 | 78.75 | 53.13 | 225.84 | 78.76 |
| P/FFO | 21.85 | 19.08 | 12.24 | 47.07 | 11.43 |
| P/TBV | 4.67 | 5.12 | 3.42 | 5.47 | 0.87 |
| P/AFFO | 85.62 | 86.75 | 61.04 | 107.94 | 23.19 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.26 | 4.57 | 3.17 | 5.01 | 0.74 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.63 | 5.40 | 4.57 | 6.86 | 0.85 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates APD's fair value at $247.66 vs the current price of $301.07, implying -17.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 58/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $247.66 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $132.15 (P10) to $373.14 (P90), with a median of $229.51.
APD's current P/E of -170.1x compares to the industry median of 31.0x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -648.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 28.2x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
42 analysts cover APD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $312.78 (range: $255.00 — $360.00), implying +3.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (23), Hold (19), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 58/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for APD.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.