MODEL VERDICT
APi Group Corporation (APG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $42.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $41.98 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $41.00 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $41.63 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $43.25 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $64.59 | +52.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $41.52 | -1.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $48.38 | +14.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $38.18 | -9.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $40.71 | -3.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $34.98 | -17.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $37.81 | -10.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $48.37 | +14.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $43.75 | +3.3% | 100% | 71 | FAIRLY VALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 32.57 | 33.02 | 25.56 | 43.07 | 6.92 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.27 | 16.83 | 15.46 | 42.30 | 10.50 |
| P/FCF | 22.61 | 21.51 | 6.72 | 41.75 | 11.56 |
| P/FFO | 20.52 | 19.57 | 13.28 | 27.96 | 5.44 |
| P/AFFO | 26.55 | 24.66 | 16.80 | 42.72 | 9.22 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.90 | 2.60 | 1.97 | 4.67 | 0.98 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.25 | 1.26 | 0.76 | 2.01 | 0.45 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates APG's fair value at $43.75 vs the current price of $42.34, implying +3.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 71/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $43.75 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $38.51 (P10) to $54.26 (P90), with a median of $46.27.
APG's current P/E of -61.4x compares to the industry median of 40.2x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -252.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover APG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $52.50 (range: $49.00 — $55.00), implying +24.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 71/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for APG.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.