MODEL VERDICT
The Arena Group Holdings, Inc. (AREN) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 34 analyst estimates | $9.22 | +171.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 29 industry peers | $13.80 | +305.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 38 industry peers | $3.08 | -9.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 39 industry peers | $5.19 | +52.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $9.85 | +189.6% | 100% | 64 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/S Ratio | 0.77 | 0.56 | 0.22 | 2.20 | 0.67 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 10 valuation metrics, the model estimates AREN's fair value at $9.85 vs the current price of $3.40, implying +189.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $9.85 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.50 (P10) to $13.75 (P90), with a median of $8.97.
AREN's current P/E of -1.2x compares to the industry median of 18.0x (21 peers in the group). This represents a -106.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover AREN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $10.00 (range: $10.00 — $10.00), implying +194.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AREN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.