MODEL VERDICT
Asana, Inc. (ASAN) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $7.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $7.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $7.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $8.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $12.96 | Below threshold | -36.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $5.21 | -26.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $0.80 | -88.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $0.37 | -94.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $11.35 | +59.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $11.31 | +59.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $0.80 | -88.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $5.85 | -17.6% | 100% | 63 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 12.52 | 12.80 | 10.66 | 13.83 | 1.51 |
| P/B Ratio | 12.52 | 12.80 | 10.66 | 13.83 | 1.51 |
| P/S Ratio | 18.41 | 6.90 | 4.35 | 53.03 | 20.07 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates ASAN's fair value at $5.85 vs the current price of $7.10, implying -17.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5.85 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.30 (P10) to $8.00 (P90), with a median of $5.34.
ASAN's current P/E of -6.4x compares to the industry median of 26.2x (71 peers in the group). This represents a -124.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
18 analysts cover ASAN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $13.29 (range: $8.00 — $18.00), implying +87.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (7), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ASAN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.