MODEL VERDICT
Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (ASM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $6.90 | CURRENT | — |
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $6.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $6.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $7.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $7.17 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $4.31 | -37.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $4.05 | -41.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $3.89 | -43.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $0.23 | -96.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $3.51 | -49.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $0.78 | -88.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $4.65 | -32.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $3.89 | -43.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $3.89 | -43.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $0.21 | -97.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $3.78 | -45.2% | 100% | 64 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 35× | 38× | 41× (Current) | 44× | 47× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 | $8 |
| Conservative (7%) | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 | $9 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $7 | $7 | $8 | $8 | $9 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $7 | $7 | $8 | $8 | $9 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 49.99 | 31.71 | 14.68 | 121.86 | 48.74 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.52 | 9.69 | 6.74 | 30.13 | 12.74 |
| EV/EBITDA | 43.40 | 23.73 | 5.51 | 154.43 | 62.79 |
| P/FCF | 225.42 | 19.06 | 6.67 | 856.89 | 421.02 |
| P/FFO | 307.65 | 18.98 | 10.84 | 1461.80 | 645.24 |
| P/TBV | 1.47 | 0.99 | 0.62 | 4.20 | 1.26 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.47 | 0.99 | 0.62 | 4.20 | 1.26 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.60 | 1.88 | 1.27 | 11.31 | 3.98 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates ASM's fair value at $3.78 vs the current price of $6.90, implying -45.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $3.78 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.58 (P10) to $7.70 (P90), with a median of $5.27.
ASM's current P/E of 40.6x compares to the industry median of 22.9x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +77.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 50.0x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
5 analysts cover ASM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $10.83 (range: $7.25 — $12.75), implying +57.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ASM.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.