Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$19.18
→
Intrinsic$197.21
+928%
$139.09$197.21$307.70
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests ATHM could have 928% upside at 8% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $19, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 8%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $139 → Bull $308. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $231 | $251 | $273 | $296 |
| 10% | $169 | $182 | $197 | $213 |
| 12% | $134 | $144 | $155 | $167 |
| 14% | $112 | $120 | $129 | $138 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($308) offers 1504% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (8%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($139) with 6% growth, 12% discount rate
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.33B
Year 2$1.44B
Year 3$1.55B
Year 4$1.68B
Year 5$1.81B
Terminal$26.66B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.23BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.