MODEL VERDICT
Autohome Inc. (ATHM) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $19.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $21.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $21.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $21.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $22.15 | Pending | -5.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 29 analyst estimates | $19.18 | +0.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 24 industry peers | $99.03 | +416.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 19 industry peers | $247.31 | +1189.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 27 industry peers | $112.46 | +486.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 20 industry peers | $84.05 | +338.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 27 industry peers | $146.82 | +665.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 34 industry peers | $144.68 | +654.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 34 industry peers | $142.73 | +644.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 23 industry peers | $338.79 | +1666.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 27 industry peers | $112.45 | +486.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $84.35 | +339.8% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $81 | $109 | $136 | $163 | $190 |
| Conservative (5%) | $84 | $112 | $140 | $168 | $196 |
| Base Case (-13.0%) | $69 | $93 | $116 | $139 | $162 |
| Bull Case (-18%) | $66 | $88 | $110 | $132 | $154 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 1.89 | 1.95 | 0.43 | 3.65 | 1.42 |
| EV/EBIT | 2.46 | 2.87 | 0.91 | 3.72 | 1.18 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.27 | 2.77 | 0.68 | 3.53 | 1.24 |
| P/FCF | 2.47 | 2.56 | 1.12 | 3.90 | 1.11 |
| P/FFO | 2.19 | 1.61 | 1.23 | 3.47 | 0.93 |
| P/TBV | 3.19 | 0.19 | 0.15 | 11.06 | 4.23 |
| P/AFFO | 2.32 | 1.70 | 1.33 | 3.76 | 1.00 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.57 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 8.74 | 3.37 |
| Div Yield | 0.17 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.47 | 0.15 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.83 | 0.55 | 0.45 | 1.38 | 0.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates ATHM's fair value at $84.35 vs the current price of $19.18, implying +339.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $84.35 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $69.64 (P10) to $119.73 (P90), with a median of $93.15.
ATHM's current P/E of 9.9x compares to the industry median of 18.6x (19 peers in the group). This represents a -46.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 1.9x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
22 analysts cover ATHM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $43.67 (range: $28.00 — $70.00), implying +127.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (9), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ATHM trades at the 2630th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (1.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ATHM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (34.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9250.0% to approximately $37. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.