MODEL VERDICT
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AUPH) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $14.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $14.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $14.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $14.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $15.15 | Below threshold | -4.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 57 analyst estimates | $21.48 | +51.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 47 industry peers | $16.34 | +15.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 48 industry peers | $45.13 | +218.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 46 industry peers | $26.05 | +83.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 46 industry peers | $18.76 | +32.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 48 industry peers | $23.80 | +68.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $19.69 | +39.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $20.81 | +46.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 47 industry peers | $54.95 | +287.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 47 industry peers | $28.32 | +99.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $56.69 | +300.1% | 100% | 79 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $9 | $11 | $15 | $19 | $24 |
| Conservative (7%) | $9 | $11 | $15 | $20 | $24 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $9 | $11 | $16 | $20 | $25 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $9 | $12 | $16 | $21 | $26 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 4.18 | 3.83 | 1.54 | 6.50 | 1.73 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.10 | 3.81 | 1.51 | 6.31 | 1.68 |
| P/S Ratio | 864.21 | 7.82 | 4.57 | 5926.62 | 2232.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates AUPH's fair value at $56.69 vs the current price of $14.17, implying +300.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $56.69 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $21.68 (P10) to $134.73 (P90), with a median of $51.52.
AUPH's current P/E of 6.8x compares to the industry median of 21.8x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -68.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
14 analysts cover AUPH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $15.50 (range: $15.00 — $16.00), implying +9.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AUPH.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.