Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (LGND) — Relative ValuationPeer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (LGND)
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $198.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $183.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $183.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $187.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $206.65 | Below threshold | -9.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 57 analyst estimates | $217.16 | +9.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 47 industry peers | $64.08 | -67.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 46 industry peers | $111.84 | -43.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 48 industry peers | $101.64 | -48.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $130.31 | -34.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $126.20 | -36.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 47 industry peers | $117.08 | -41.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $135.01 | -31.9% | 100% | 74 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.15 | 23.53 | 3.27 | 46.25 | 17.57 |
| EV/EBIT | 73.09 | 30.93 | 3.17 | 341.06 | 120.05 |
| EV/EBITDA | 38.82 | 25.19 | 3.10 | 149.97 | 49.80 |
| P/FCF | 24.56 | 25.32 | 9.40 | 38.03 | 11.33 |
| P/FFO | 43.14 | 24.65 | 3.06 | 112.31 | 38.56 |
| P/TBV | 7.34 | 6.38 | 4.26 | 14.64 | 4.01 |
| P/AFFO | 35.33 | 24.43 | 3.07 | 78.43 | 30.16 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.87 | 2.36 | 1.81 | 5.82 | 1.39 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.16 | 11.03 | 5.74 | 17.13 | 3.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates LGND's fair value at $135.01 vs the current price of $198.31, implying -31.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $135.01 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $101.97 (P10) to $210.61 (P90), with a median of $156.33.
LGND's current P/E of -901.4x compares to the industry median of 21.4x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -4306.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.1x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
16 analysts cover LGND with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $248.00 (range: $230.00 — $275.00), implying +25.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (4), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for LGND.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.