MODEL VERDICT
AvePoint, Inc. (AVPT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $10.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $10.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $10.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $10.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $13.62 | Below threshold | -20.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $6.04 | -44.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 55 industry peers | $4.74 | -56.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 45 industry peers | $3.43 | -68.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $5.21 | -51.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $4.49 | -58.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $7.77 | -27.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $7.92 | -26.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $5.08 | -52.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 50 industry peers | $3.49 | -67.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $5.43 | -49.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $8.28 | -23.2% | 100% | 79 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 60× | 66× | 72× (Current) | 78× | 84× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 |
| Conservative (7%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $12 | $13 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 108.68 | 48.00 | 35.33 | 346.69 | 133.92 |
| P/TBV | 6.90 | 7.43 | 3.48 | 12.41 | 3.69 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.21 | 6.65 | 3.08 | 11.19 | 3.26 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.11 | 5.50 | 3.22 | 9.18 | 2.44 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates AVPT's fair value at $8.28 vs the current price of $10.78, implying -23.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $8.28 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.76 (P10) to $12.16 (P90), with a median of $7.66.
AVPT's current P/E of 71.9x compares to the industry median of 22.9x (45 peers in the group). This represents a +214.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
12 analysts cover AVPT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $17.55 (range: $16.00 — $18.30), implying +62.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AVPT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.