MODEL VERDICT
Azenta, Inc. (AZTA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $24.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $25.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $25.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $24.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $22.21 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $13.74 | -44.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $12.98 | -47.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $23.02 | -7.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $28.67 | +15.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $54.20 | +117.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $45.78 | +83.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $20.89 | -16.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $39.63 | +59.1% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 198.31 | 54.40 | 25.99 | 730.69 | 280.81 |
| P/FCF | 92.60 | 62.21 | 39.83 | 206.15 | 77.67 |
| P/FFO | 236.32 | 81.65 | 38.44 | 894.78 | 334.26 |
| P/TBV | 5.52 | 3.21 | 1.63 | 11.47 | 4.14 |
| P/AFFO | 88.59 | 75.03 | 55.41 | 135.33 | 41.65 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.57 | 1.70 | 0.88 | 5.79 | 1.79 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.48 | 5.58 | 2.57 | 14.94 | 4.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates AZTA's fair value at $39.63 vs the current price of $24.91, implying +59.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $39.63 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $22.76 (P10) to $64.51 (P90), with a median of $39.27.
AZTA's current P/E of -19.2x compares to the industry median of 31.2x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -161.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover AZTA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $44.67 (range: $44.00 — $45.00), implying +79.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AZTA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.