MODEL VERDICT
JFrog Ltd. (FROG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $49.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $45.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $44.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $42.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $43.22 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $18.69 | -62.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $23.59 | -52.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $23.02 | -53.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $17.79 | -64.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $17.91 | -64.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $23.78 | -52.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $33.26 | -33.3% | 100% | 63 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 81.34 | 81.82 | 29.93 | 126.03 | 42.33 |
| P/TBV | 8.91 | 8.52 | 5.48 | 15.25 | 3.46 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.11 | 4.84 | 3.39 | 8.18 | 1.66 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.99 | 11.92 | 7.53 | 19.37 | 4.53 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates FROG's fair value at $33.26 vs the current price of $49.89, implying -33.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $33.26 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $22.16 (P10) to $41.67 (P90), with a median of $31.83.
FROG's current P/E of -80.5x compares to the industry median of 26.3x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -406.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
22 analysts cover FROG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $68.71 (range: $52.00 — $80.00), implying +37.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for FROG.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.