MODEL VERDICT
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $23.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $23.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $22.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $24.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $23.70 | Below threshold | +3.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 21 industry peers | $25.36 | +9.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $16.52 | -28.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 21 bank peers | $17.45 | -24.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 19 industry peers | $23.64 | +2.2% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 21 industry peers | $25.36 | +9.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 21 analyst estimates | $25.06 | +8.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $19.33 | -16.4% | 100% | 81 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $15 | $19 | $22 | $26 | $30 |
| Conservative (19%) | $16 | $20 | $24 | $28 | $32 |
| Base Case (29.0%) | $17 | $22 | $26 | $30 | $35 |
| Bull Case (39%) | $19 | $23 | $28 | $33 | $37 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.69 | 7.06 | 5.79 | 35.29 | 10.61 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.02 | 10.92 | 6.51 | 14.60 | 2.72 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.07 | 8.13 | 4.78 | 10.83 | 1.89 |
| P/FCF | 2.50 | 1.75 | 0.86 | 4.90 | 2.12 |
| P/FFO | 6.77 | 5.76 | 4.84 | 12.68 | 2.78 |
| P/TBV | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.69 | 1.03 | 0.12 |
| P/AFFO | 8.58 | 6.87 | 5.40 | 16.76 | 3.96 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.77 | 0.74 | 0.66 | 0.98 | 0.13 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.64 | 1.62 | 1.09 | 2.02 | 0.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates BBVA's fair value at $19.33 vs the current price of $23.13, implying -16.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $19.33 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.80 (P10) to $21.90 (P90), with a median of $18.57.
BBVA's current P/E of 11.7x compares to the industry median of 15.1x (21 peers in the group). This represents a -22.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.7x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
13 analysts cover BBVA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (4), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 31.9% is 11.1 percentage points above the 7-year average (20.8%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$13. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BBVA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (20.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4460.0% to approximately $13. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.