MODEL VERDICT
Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $81.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $88.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $86.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $91.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $95.95 | Below threshold | -1.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 21 industry peers | $76.88 | -5.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $84.58 | +3.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 21 bank peers | $74.77 | -8.2% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 19 industry peers | $48.67 | -40.2% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 21 industry peers | $76.70 | -5.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 21 analyst estimates | $74.42 | -8.6% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $72.56 | -10.9% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $60 | $71 | $82 | $93 | $104 |
| Conservative (5%) | $62 | $73 | $85 | $96 | $107 |
| Base Case (5.6%) | $62 | $74 | $85 | $96 | $108 |
| Bull Case (8%) | $64 | $75 | $87 | $98 | $110 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.51 | 13.08 | 9.62 | 73.61 | 23.46 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.22 | 13.79 | 5.32 | 52.74 | 15.63 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.02 | 10.42 | 4.20 | 13.20 | 2.96 |
| P/FCF | 32.17 | 20.78 | 4.54 | 80.25 | 32.48 |
| P/FFO | 8.31 | 7.97 | 6.55 | 10.76 | 1.40 |
| P/TBV | 1.29 | 1.26 | 0.82 | 1.64 | 0.30 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.04 | 1.03 | 0.67 | 1.35 | 0.23 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.97 | 1.94 | 1.52 | 2.37 | 0.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates WFC's fair value at $72.56 vs the current price of $81.44, implying -10.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $72.56 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $59.83 (P10) to $97.88 (P90), with a median of $75.64.
WFC's current P/E of 15.2x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (21 peers in the group). This represents a +5.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.5x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
59 analysts cover WFC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $100.00 (range: $74.00 — $113.00), implying +22.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (26), Hold (29), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WFC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3410.0% to approximately $109. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.