MODEL VERDICT
Barclays PLC (BCS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $24.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $25.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $25.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $26.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $25.96 | Below threshold | +2.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 21 industry peers | $24.76 | +2.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $34.71 | +43.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 21 bank peers | $35.17 | +44.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 19 industry peers | $21.10 | -13.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 21 industry peers | $24.76 | +2.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 21 analyst estimates | $22.78 | -6.2% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $25.69 | +5.8% | 100% | 81 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (15%) | $13 | $17 | $21 | $24 | $28 |
| Conservative (24%) | $14 | $18 | $22 | $26 | $31 |
| Base Case (37.0%) | $16 | $20 | $25 | $29 | $34 |
| Bull Case (50%) | $17 | $22 | $27 | $32 | $37 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.36 | 9.49 | 6.50 | 23.50 | 6.46 |
| EV/EBIT | 4.97 | 3.24 | 3.18 | 8.49 | 3.05 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.05 | 3.18 | 2.68 | 6.30 | 1.96 |
| P/FCF | 2.97 | 1.05 | 0.63 | 9.16 | 4.13 |
| P/FFO | 6.85 | 6.34 | 4.30 | 10.41 | 2.39 |
| P/TBV | 0.74 | 0.72 | 0.49 | 1.33 | 0.28 |
| P/AFFO | 9.35 | 7.89 | 5.57 | 13.86 | 3.70 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.66 | 0.63 | 0.44 | 1.19 | 0.25 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.72 | 1.39 | 0.98 | 3.46 | 0.82 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates BCS's fair value at $25.69 vs the current price of $24.28, implying +5.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $25.69 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $21.42 (P10) to $26.65 (P90), with a median of $23.93.
BCS's current P/E of 11.0x compares to the industry median of 15.1x (21 peers in the group). This represents a -27.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.4x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
24 analysts cover BCS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $29.00 (range: $29.00 — $29.00), implying +19.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (5), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 26.7% is 10.3 percentage points above the 7-year average (16.4%), with a Z-score of +1.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$12. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BCS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4880.0% to approximately $12. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.