MODEL VERDICT
Clearway Energy, Inc. (CWEN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $40.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $39.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $39.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $40.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $41.07 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $30.49 | -24.3% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $18.72 | -53.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 4 industry peers | $85.67 | +112.6% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $43.73 | +8.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $59.54 | +47.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $30.48 | -24.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $48.29 | +19.8% | 100% | 81 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 24× | 26× | 28× (Current) | 30× | 32× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (18%) | $40 | $44 | $47 | $50 | $54 |
| Conservative (29%) | $44 | $48 | $51 | $55 | $59 |
| Base Case (45.2%) | $49 | $54 | $58 | $62 | $66 |
| Bull Case (61%) | $55 | $59 | $64 | $69 | $73 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 55.41 | 37.80 | 6.39 | 145.14 | 50.63 |
| EV/EBIT | 35.98 | 35.32 | 6.89 | 62.91 | 17.52 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.15 | 12.57 | 4.84 | 13.35 | 2.94 |
| P/FCF | 50.98 | 10.73 | 1.95 | 241.62 | 87.00 |
| P/FFO | 4.53 | 4.06 | 2.95 | 6.82 | 1.41 |
| P/TBV | 2.34 | 2.54 | 0.91 | 5.26 | 1.51 |
| P/AFFO | 13.02 | 10.43 | 5.38 | 26.45 | 7.87 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.91 | 0.92 | 0.55 | 1.36 | 0.32 |
| Div Yield | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.72 | 2.77 | 2.11 | 3.28 | 0.47 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates CWEN's fair value at $48.29 vs the current price of $40.30, implying +19.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $48.29 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $30.74 (P10) to $68.92 (P90), with a median of $47.34.
CWEN's current P/E of 28.4x compares to the industry median of 21.5x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +32.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 55.4x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
16 analysts cover CWEN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $43.67 (range: $38.00 — $56.00), implying +8.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CWEN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (11.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8480.0% to approximately $74. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.