MODEL VERDICT
Clearway Energy, Inc. (CWEN) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $38.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $39.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $40.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $39.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $32.03 | Below threshold | +22.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $60.23 | +57.2% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $40.97 | +6.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $321.67 | +739.7% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $29.12 | -24.0% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $203.45 | +431.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $86.11 | +124.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $54.22 | +41.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $94.63 | +147.0% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (18%) | $39 | $42 | $45 | $49 | $52 |
| Conservative (29%) | $42 | $46 | $50 | $53 | $57 |
| Base Case (45.2%) | $47 | $52 | $56 | $60 | $64 |
| Bull Case (61%) | $53 | $57 | $62 | $66 | $71 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 55.41 | 37.80 | 6.39 | 145.14 | 50.63 |
| EV/EBIT | 37.82 | 35.32 | 6.89 | 75.78 | 21.12 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.15 | 12.57 | 4.84 | 13.35 | 2.94 |
| P/FCF | 50.98 | 10.73 | 1.95 | 241.62 | 87.00 |
| P/FFO | 4.53 | 4.06 | 2.95 | 6.82 | 1.41 |
| P/TBV | 2.34 | 2.54 | 0.91 | 5.26 | 1.51 |
| P/AFFO | 13.02 | 10.43 | 5.38 | 26.45 | 7.87 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.91 | 0.92 | 0.55 | 1.36 | 0.32 |
| Div Yield | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.72 | 2.77 | 2.11 | 3.28 | 0.47 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates CWEN's fair value at $94.63 vs the current price of $38.31, implying +147.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $94.63 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $53.87 (P10) to $94.11 (P90), with a median of $74.48.
CWEN's current P/E of 27.0x compares to the industry median of 42.4x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -36.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 55.4x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
16 analysts cover CWEN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $41.50 (range: $34.00 — $50.00), implying +8.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (2), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CWEN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (11.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9440.0% to approximately $74. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.