Business First Bancshares, Inc. (BFST)
Valuation Overview•Is Business First Bancshares, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount across both intrinsic cash flow and relative peer multiples, indicating a strong margin of safety.
Moderate quality score of 64/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
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Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though solvency presents a headwind.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside with steady expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
BFST demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (12.0% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 22.2% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $93.2M | +18.4% | +12.0% | +16.9% | +24.0% | |
| EBITDA | $77.6M | — | +17.5% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $24.6M | +34.9% | +17.4% | — | +35.9% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.71 | +23.0% | +6.2% | +11.1% | +17.0% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $45.0M | +53.9% | +14.2% | +28.4% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 97.8% | 97.2% | 96.5% | 95.7% |
| Operating Margin | 22.2% | 34.3% | 33.5% | 28.4% |
| Net Margin | 34.3% | 26.7% | 26.4% | 22.1% |
| FCF Margin | 40.5% | 27.9% | 27.8% | 23.7% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'26Latest | $0.74 | $0.79 | +6.0% | ||
| Q3'26 | $0.70 | $0.71 | +1.4% | ||
| Q2'26 | $0.69 | $0.73 | +5.8% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.72 | $0.79 | +9.7% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.69 | $0.72 | +4.3% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.65 | $0.66 | +1.5% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.61 | $0.65 | +6.6% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.49 | $0.66 | +34.7% |
Total return is +33.3% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +23.6%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +26.2% | +18.5% | — |
| 1Y | +33.3% | +23.6% | +2.4% |
| 3YCAGR | +17.8% | -1.1% | +8.3% |
| 5YCAGR | +4.3% | -5.1% | +9.5% |
| 10YCAGR | +3.7% | -9.5% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 29.9x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Business First Bancshares, Inc. (BFST) valuation, health, and returns.
Business First Bancshares, Inc. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +23.9% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $39.90)
Business First Bancshares, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $39.90 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $46.11 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $36.00 (implying +11.8% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Business First Bancshares, Inc. displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 64/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 6.2%.
Business First Bancshares, Inc. pays a 1.8% dividend yield, covered by a 19% payout ratio with 7 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.4% buyback yield.
Business First Bancshares, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +18.4% 1Y revenue growth and +23.0% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +12.0%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 4 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 92% of recent quarters with a 10-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +11.8% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Business First Bancshares, Inc. include: -13.9% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.39x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.