Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD)
Valuation Overview•Is Brookdale Senior Living Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a premium valuation multiple over its peers, likely pricing in superior execution.
Fragile underlying quality score of 23/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Highly distressed profile flashing severe fundamental warning signs.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
BKD struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company exhibits steady, low-single-digit revenue growth paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (1.4%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $764.9M | +4.8% | +4.4% | +0.7% | -3.0% | |
| EBITDA | $128.6M | — | +6.5% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$6.9M | -30.1% | -3.3% | — | +5.4% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.03 | -24.7% | — | — | +7.7% | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$25.6M | -739.7% | -15.0% | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 14.3% | 24.6% | 22.0% | 25.2% |
| Operating Margin | 1.4% | 0.9% | -1.3% | -3.6% |
| Net Margin | -6.6% | -7.3% | -6.8% | -7.7% |
| FCF Margin | 0.3% | -4.4% | -6.0% | -2.7% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.03 | $-0.03 | -200.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.16 | $-0.17 | -6.3% | ||
| Q4'25 | $-0.16 | $-0.20 | -25.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-0.14 | $-0.18 | -28.6% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-0.11 | $-0.11 | +0.0% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-0.16 | $-0.37 | -131.3% | ||
| Q4'24 | $-0.17 | $-0.22 | -29.4% | ||
| Q3'24 | $-0.13 | $-0.17 | -30.8% |
Total return is +99.6% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +74.6%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +25.9% | +16.6% | — |
| 1Y | +99.6% | +74.6% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +50.4% | +30.8% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +10.4% | -3.2% | — |
| 10YCAGR | -1.7% | -15.3% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) valuation, health, and returns.
Brookdale Senior Living Inc. is estimated to be fair under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $12.69)
Brookdale Senior Living Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $12.69 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $5.79 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $18.75 (implying +37.4% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Brookdale Senior Living Inc. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 23/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of -1.3 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 0.2%.
Brookdale Senior Living Inc. does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
Brookdale Senior Living Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +4.8% 1Y revenue growth and -24.7% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +4.4%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 12 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 17% of recent quarters with a -8-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +37.4% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Brookdale Senior Living Inc. include: -29.2% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.50x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.