MODEL VERDICT
Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $15.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $14.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $16.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $16.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $11.01 | Below threshold | +47.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 27 industry peers | $19.76 | +29.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 22 industry peers | $15.88 | +3.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 26 industry peers | $1.55 | -89.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 23 industry peers | $16.57 | +8.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 31 industry peers | $16.35 | +6.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 31 industry peers | $12.96 | -15.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 23 industry peers | $16.20 | +5.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.57 | +21.3% | 100% | 73 | UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 98.39 | 87.86 | 1.19 | 216.64 | 89.64 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.72 | 16.11 | 7.70 | 45.58 | 11.97 |
| P/FFO | 9.28 | 7.34 | 1.85 | 27.19 | 8.54 |
| P/TBV | 2.66 | 2.04 | 0.93 | 6.13 | 1.95 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.30 | 1.65 | 0.89 | 5.35 | 1.72 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.40 | 0.35 | 0.19 | 0.79 | 0.19 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates BKD's fair value at $18.57 vs the current price of $15.30, implying +21.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.57 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $14.15 (P10) to $25.47 (P90), with a median of $19.58.
BKD's current P/E of -13.7x compares to the industry median of 19.7x (20 peers in the group). This represents a -169.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover BKD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $17.50 (range: $17.00 — $18.00), implying +14.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (4), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BKD.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.