MODEL VERDICT
Bumble Inc. (BMBL) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $3.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $2.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $3.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $3.48 | Pending | -8.3% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $3.39 | Pending | -5.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 117 analyst estimates | $15.33 | +405.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 110 industry peers | $14.75 | +386.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 112 industry peers | $10.46 | +245.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 129 industry peers | $26.61 | +778.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 131 industry peers | $29.27 | +866.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 112 industry peers | $15.09 | +398.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $15.69 | +417.9% | 100% | 62 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 23.35 | 17.63 | 10.17 | 47.98 | 17.43 |
| P/FFO | 105.00 | 31.17 | 10.50 | 273.33 | 146.15 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.12 | 0.98 | 0.73 | 1.77 | 0.47 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.89 | 2.45 | 0.92 | 5.75 | 2.09 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates BMBL's fair value at $15.69 vs the current price of $3.03, implying +417.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $15.69 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.66 (P10) to $21.02 (P90), with a median of $16.74.
BMBL's current P/E of -0.7x compares to the industry median of 28.9x (72 peers in the group). This represents a -102.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
23 analysts cover BMBL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $5.00 (range: $4.00 — $7.00), implying +65.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (16), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BMBL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.