MODEL VERDICT
Match Group, Inc. (MTCH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $38.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $36.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $35.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $34.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $31.70 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $20.41 | -47.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $37.98 | -1.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $60.65 | +56.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $87.03 | +125.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $26.22 | -32.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $60.89 | +57.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $98.07 | +153.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $17.53 | -54.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $30.93 | -20.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $58.58 | +51.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $87.53 | +126.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $70.07 | +81.2% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $32 | $37 | $43 | $48 | $53 |
| Conservative (19%) | $34 | $40 | $45 | $51 | $57 |
| Base Case (29.2%) | $37 | $43 | $49 | $55 | $61 |
| Bull Case (40%) | $40 | $46 | $53 | $60 | $66 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 70.55 | 33.46 | 13.57 | 229.08 | 83.22 |
| EV/EBIT | 38.34 | 29.66 | 12.78 | 112.32 | 35.83 |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.32 | 23.49 | 11.67 | 53.13 | 17.20 |
| P/FCF | 25.40 | 21.19 | 8.28 | 50.94 | 17.68 |
| P/FFO | 59.22 | 27.74 | 11.79 | 190.12 | 70.45 |
| P/AFFO | 74.64 | 34.37 | 12.80 | 240.09 | 91.43 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.15 | 3.84 | 2.43 | 16.19 | 5.67 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates MTCH's fair value at $70.07 vs the current price of $38.67, implying +81.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $70.07 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $47.91 (P10) to $87.79 (P90), with a median of $65.78.
MTCH's current P/E of 16.2x compares to the industry median of 25.5x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -36.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 70.6x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
32 analysts cover MTCH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $36.00 (range: $33.00 — $43.00), implying -6.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (15), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MTCH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 25620.0% to approximately $138. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.