MODEL VERDICT
Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $31.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $31.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $30.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $32.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $32.22 | Pending | +1.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $54.12 | +71.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $66.85 | +111.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $62.67 | +98.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $76.25 | +141.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $73.04 | +131.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $61.25 | +93.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 32 industry peers | $117.64 | +272.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $34.97 | +10.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $44.57 | +41.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $69.51 | +120.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $76.79 | +143.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $79.55 | +151.8% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $24 | $29 | $35 | $40 | $45 |
| Conservative (19%) | $25 | $31 | $37 | $42 | $48 |
| Base Case (29.2%) | $28 | $34 | $40 | $46 | $52 |
| Bull Case (40%) | $30 | $37 | $43 | $50 | $56 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 70.55 | 33.46 | 13.57 | 229.08 | 83.22 |
| EV/EBIT | 38.34 | 29.66 | 12.78 | 112.32 | 35.83 |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.32 | 23.49 | 11.67 | 53.13 | 17.20 |
| P/FCF | 25.40 | 21.19 | 8.28 | 50.94 | 17.68 |
| P/FFO | 59.22 | 27.74 | 11.79 | 190.12 | 70.45 |
| P/AFFO | 74.64 | 34.37 | 12.80 | 240.09 | 91.43 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.15 | 3.84 | 2.43 | 16.19 | 5.67 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates MTCH's fair value at $79.55 vs the current price of $31.60, implying +151.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $79.55 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $59.58 (P10) to $101.53 (P90), with a median of $78.55.
MTCH's current P/E of 13.3x compares to the industry median of 26.3x (71 peers in the group). This represents a -49.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 70.6x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
32 analysts cover MTCH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $36.00 (range: $33.00 — $43.00), implying +13.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (15), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MTCH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 33590.0% to approximately $138. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.