MODEL VERDICT
Pinterest, Inc. (PINS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $17.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $17.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $15.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $20.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $27.14 | Pending | -25.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 29 analyst estimates | $19.85 | +15.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 24 industry peers | $7.13 | -58.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 19 industry peers | $9.53 | -44.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 27 industry peers | $24.84 | +45.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 20 industry peers | $5.24 | -69.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 27 industry peers | $25.09 | +46.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 34 industry peers | $17.96 | +4.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 34 industry peers | $18.36 | +7.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 23 industry peers | $12.97 | -24.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 27 industry peers | $24.02 | +40.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $91.54 | +434.4% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 24× | 26× | 28× (Current) | 30× | 32× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $15 | $16 | $18 | $19 | $20 |
| Conservative (7%) | $16 | $17 | $18 | $19 | $21 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $16 | $17 | $19 | $20 | $21 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $17 | $18 | $19 | $21 | $22 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 47.32 | 42.44 | 10.86 | 88.66 | 39.13 |
| EV/EBITDA | 75.26 | 76.46 | 53.32 | 95.99 | 21.36 |
| P/FCF | 598.50 | 37.32 | 14.22 | 3439.28 | 1391.73 |
| P/FFO | 44.93 | 42.00 | 10.75 | 82.02 | 35.72 |
| P/TBV | 7.52 | 5.12 | 3.75 | 17.63 | 5.00 |
| P/AFFO | 46.87 | 45.48 | 10.90 | 84.23 | 36.69 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.39 | 4.93 | 3.75 | 17.52 | 4.97 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.25 | 6.86 | 4.22 | 23.21 | 6.53 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates PINS's fair value at $91.54 vs the current price of $17.13, implying +434.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $91.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.81 (P10) to $326.92 (P90), with a median of $95.05.
PINS's current P/E of 28.1x compares to the industry median of 15.6x (19 peers in the group). This represents a +79.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 47.3x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
46 analysts cover PINS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $25.33 (range: $16.00 — $42.00), implying +47.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (26), Hold (19), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PINS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (10.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7400.0% to approximately $30. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.