MODEL VERDICT
The Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $75.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $77.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $75.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $77.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $72.29 | Below threshold | +7.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 21 industry peers | $81.47 | +7.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $115.25 | +52.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 21 bank peers | $106.76 | +40.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 19 industry peers | $150.31 | +98.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 21 industry peers | $81.27 | +7.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 21 analyst estimates | $86.32 | +14.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $86.09 | +13.6% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $81 | $93 | $104 | $116 | $128 |
| Conservative (5%) | $84 | $96 | $108 | $119 | $131 |
| Base Case (1.4%) | $81 | $92 | $104 | $115 | $127 |
| Bull Case (2%) | $81 | $93 | $104 | $116 | $128 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.23 | 9.17 | 6.11 | 12.95 | 2.08 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.55 | 24.02 | 4.09 | 50.41 | 17.24 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.40 | 18.96 | 3.65 | 43.74 | 13.98 |
| P/FCF | 5.84 | 3.61 | 1.20 | 18.13 | 6.99 |
| P/FFO | 7.38 | 7.48 | 5.17 | 9.77 | 1.45 |
| P/TBV | 1.20 | 1.26 | 0.95 | 1.56 | 0.22 |
| P/AFFO | 7.76 | 7.63 | 5.44 | 10.14 | 1.52 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.93 | 0.95 | 0.75 | 1.20 | 0.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.08 | 2.15 | 1.25 | 2.84 | 0.49 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates BNS's fair value at $86.09 vs the current price of $75.75, implying +13.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $86.09 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $79.82 (P10) to $92.26 (P90), with a median of $85.86.
BNS's current P/E of 18.2x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (21 peers in the group). This represents a +27.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.2x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
19 analysts cover BNS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $72.15 (range: $67.00 — $75.60), implying -4.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BNS trades at the 7620th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (9.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BNS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.8σ, meaning margins are 1.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (23.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5480.0% to approximately $117. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.