MODEL VERDICT
Bruker Corporation (BRKR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $36.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $36.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $40.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $39.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $37.59 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $42.13 | +14.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $37.10 | +0.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $21.30 | -42.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $24.51 | -33.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $25.95 | -29.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $13.94 | -62.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $95.33 | +159.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $104.77 | +184.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $21.41 | -41.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $24.33 | -33.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $35.80 | -2.7% | 100% | 83 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 40× | 44× | 48× (Current) | 52× | 56× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $31 | $34 | $37 | $40 | $43 |
| Conservative (5%) | $32 | $35 | $38 | $41 | $45 |
| Base Case (-9.6%) | $27 | $30 | $33 | $36 | $38 |
| Bull Case (-13%) | $26 | $29 | $32 | $34 | $37 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 43.26 | 40.45 | 25.34 | 77.13 | 18.05 |
| EV/EBIT | 28.76 | 27.61 | 17.07 | 42.49 | 8.78 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.17 | 21.74 | 14.36 | 26.18 | 4.14 |
| P/FCF | 51.95 | 56.85 | 24.57 | 70.33 | 17.46 |
| P/FFO | 27.79 | 29.26 | 19.13 | 35.13 | 6.45 |
| P/TBV | 20.20 | 20.66 | 11.16 | 25.32 | 5.01 |
| P/AFFO | 40.43 | 39.95 | 23.95 | 59.35 | 12.74 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.94 | 8.51 | 4.83 | 11.83 | 2.41 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.73 | 3.85 | 2.47 | 5.31 | 0.97 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates BRKR's fair value at $35.80 vs the current price of $36.79, implying -2.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $35.80 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $35.54 (P10) to $41.67 (P90), with a median of $38.54.
BRKR's current P/E of 48.4x compares to the industry median of 28.0x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +72.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 43.3x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
32 analysts cover BRKR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $52.13 (range: $35.00 — $60.00), implying +41.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (14), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BRKR trades at the 8060th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (43.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BRKR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.