MODEL VERDICT
Cipher Mining Inc. (CIFR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $15.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $14.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $16.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $17.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $16.63 | Below threshold | +0.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 43 industry peers | $7.62 | -51.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 40 bank peers | $8.49 | -45.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $7.01 | -55.1% | 100% | 62 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 536.92 | 100.57 | 24.58 | 1921.96 | 926.06 |
| P/TBV | 3.01 | 2.23 | 0.41 | 7.43 | 2.63 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.86 | 2.20 | 0.41 | 6.74 | 2.35 |
| P/S Ratio | 22.26 | 17.53 | 8.22 | 45.77 | 17.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 6 valuation metrics, the model estimates CIFR's fair value at $7.01 vs the current price of $15.60, implying -55.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $7.01 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.69 (P10) to $10.04 (P90), with a median of $7.25.
CIFR's current P/E of -7.3x compares to the industry median of 26.9x (36 peers in the group). This represents a -126.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover CIFR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $26.31 (range: $15.00 — $38.00), implying +68.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CIFR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.