MODEL VERDICT
Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $16.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $15.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $15.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $14.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $15.32 | Pending | -2.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $8.97 | -44.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 43 industry peers | $35.95 | +120.7% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 40 bank peers | $41.20 | +152.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 37 industry peers | $9.16 | -43.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.92 | +34.6% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 40× | 44× | 48× (Current) | 52× | 56× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $14 | $16 | $17 | $18 | $20 |
| Conservative (7%) | $14 | $16 | $17 | $19 | $20 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $15 | $16 | $18 | $19 | $21 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $15 | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FFO | 71.72 | 13.35 | 10.13 | 191.68 | 103.90 |
| P/TBV | 2.09 | 1.45 | 0.42 | 6.16 | 1.94 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.76 | 1.43 | 0.41 | 4.51 | 1.39 |
| P/S Ratio | 13.53 | 8.65 | 1.82 | 59.03 | 20.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 10 valuation metrics, the model estimates RIOT's fair value at $21.92 vs the current price of $16.29, implying +34.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.92 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $14.71 (P10) to $26.37 (P90), with a median of $20.40.
RIOT's current P/E of 47.9x compares to the industry median of 26.4x (36 peers in the group). This represents a +81.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
18 analysts cover RIOT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $28.00 (range: $25.00 — $31.00), implying +71.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 29.1% is 26.5 percentage points above the 7-year average (2.5%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$1. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RIOT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (2.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9130.0% to approximately $1. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.