MODEL VERDICT
Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $18.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $18.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $18.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $17.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $16.60 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $22.64 | +22.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $24.26 | +31.1% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $16.91 | -8.6% | 100% | 64 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 421.04 | 11.26 | 9.82 | 1242.03 | 711.00 |
| P/FFO | 71.72 | 13.35 | 10.13 | 191.68 | 103.90 |
| P/TBV | 1.44 | 1.45 | 0.42 | 2.58 | 0.74 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.34 | 1.43 | 0.41 | 2.57 | 0.68 |
| P/S Ratio | 14.12 | 8.65 | 1.82 | 59.03 | 20.05 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 6 valuation metrics, the model estimates RIOT's fair value at $16.91 vs the current price of $18.50, implying -8.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $16.91 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.87 (P10) to $24.07 (P90), with a median of $17.89.
RIOT's current P/E of -9.5x compares to the industry median of 11.6x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -182.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
18 analysts cover RIOT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $27.90 (range: $25.00 — $31.00), implying +50.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for RIOT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.