MODEL VERDICT
Byline Bancorp, Inc. (BY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $32.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $33.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $33.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $33.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $33.15 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $33.04 | +1.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $34.69 | +6.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $37.58 | +15.4% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $14.41 | -55.7% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $33.04 | +1.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $31.25 | -4.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $33.08 | +1.6% | 100% | 97 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $22 | $29 | $35 | $41 | $48 |
| Conservative (16%) | $23 | $30 | $37 | $44 | $50 |
| Base Case (24.7%) | $25 | $32 | $40 | $47 | $54 |
| Bull Case (33%) | $27 | $35 | $42 | $50 | $58 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.43 | 10.55 | 8.82 | 16.09 | 2.48 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.33 | 12.38 | 8.79 | 17.31 | 3.33 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.62 | 11.81 | 8.53 | 15.38 | 2.74 |
| P/FCF | 10.98 | 7.43 | 3.97 | 29.68 | 8.95 |
| P/FFO | 10.51 | 10.11 | 8.48 | 13.47 | 1.65 |
| P/TBV | 1.30 | 1.30 | 0.94 | 1.56 | 0.20 |
| P/AFFO | 11.04 | 10.44 | 8.78 | 14.79 | 2.02 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.04 | 1.04 | 0.73 | 1.25 | 0.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.30 | 2.10 | 1.79 | 3.32 | 0.50 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates BY's fair value at $33.08 vs the current price of $32.56, implying +1.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $33.08 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $29.85 (P10) to $34.17 (P90), with a median of $31.98.
BY's current P/E of 11.3x compares to the industry median of 11.4x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -1.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.4x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
11 analysts cover BY with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $40.00 (range: $40.00 — $40.00), implying +22.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (20.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 160.0% to approximately $33. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.