MODEL VERDICT
First Business Financial Services, Inc. (FBIZ)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $56.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $56.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $59.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $58.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $58.60 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $82.29 | +45.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $60.55 | +7.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $71.23 | +26.0% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $50.76 | -10.2% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $82.33 | +45.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $76.04 | +34.5% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $66.69 | +17.9% | 100% | 94 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $33 | $47 | $60 | $73 | $87 |
| Conservative (16%) | $35 | $49 | $63 | $78 | $92 |
| Base Case (25.2%) | $38 | $53 | $68 | $83 | $99 |
| Bull Case (34%) | $41 | $57 | $73 | $89 | $106 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.71 | 8.96 | 7.00 | 9.82 | 1.00 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.41 | 12.73 | 10.70 | 29.12 | 6.87 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.95 | 11.81 | 9.97 | 24.49 | 5.36 |
| P/FCF | 7.06 | 6.81 | 5.85 | 8.49 | 0.87 |
| P/FFO | 7.47 | 7.71 | 6.17 | 8.50 | 0.87 |
| P/TBV | 1.13 | 1.19 | 0.80 | 1.23 | 0.16 |
| P/AFFO | 7.70 | 7.77 | 6.23 | 8.63 | 0.90 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.08 | 1.15 | 0.75 | 1.19 | 0.15 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.65 | 1.59 | 1.30 | 1.99 | 0.28 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates FBIZ's fair value at $66.69 vs the current price of $56.54, implying +17.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $66.69 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $59.52 (P10) to $68.57 (P90), with a median of $63.99.
FBIZ's current P/E of 9.3x compares to the industry median of 13.6x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -31.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.7x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
10 analysts cover FBIZ with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $67.00 (range: $64.00 — $70.00), implying +18.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FBIZ trades at the 920th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (8.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FBIZ's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (19.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 70.0% to approximately $57. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.